The IMF publishes forecasts for the world economy twice a year. After its April release, I wrote a piece for Daily Star Forum asking ‘How will the global economic slowdown affect Bangladesh?’ - here is the piece. The October forecasts have recently been published, and this post revisits the question. Outlooks for the world economy has been revised downward sharply in the past 6 months. These are detailed first.
Then we turn to the outlook for Bangladesh. While the IMF has revised its 2008 forecast upward, 2009 is now expected to be weaker than thought earlier. Unfortunately, they don’t discuss their numbers, but the ADB does. The ADB’s latest forecasts for Bangladesh are actually quite optimistic for the financial year 2008-09. After summarising the ADB’s analysis, I finish with some comments - inflation is expected to remain stubbornly high - and note potential risks to the outlook. It seems to me that the IMF numbers are more likely to come true.
From Rahnuma Ahmed’s analysis of Lalon Statue controversy & larger “great game”. [Image: LalBlog]
‘No decision is taken without the army chief’s consent, that’s why we informed him,’ said Maulana Noor Hossain Noorani. According to reports, highup intelligence agency officials (DGFI, NSI) had mediated contacts between the ruling party and the KN. He had met the DGFI chief in Dhaka cantonment thrice, Noorani had thus boasted to Satkhira reporters in 2005
Twenty-two months later…with their respective parties in shambles, thousands of party workers in prison, constitutional rights suspended due to the state of emergency, economy in tatters, police crack-downs on protests of garments workers, jute mill workers, women’s organisations and activists, on human chains against increasing prices of essentials, the only two forces to have remained unscathed are the Jamaat-e-Islami, and Muslim clerics, Islamic parties and madrasa students
The US government’s role in not only contributing to the situation, but in constituting the conditions that have given rise to extremes, of being the extreme, is disregarded by many Bangladesh scholars
Pakistan, America’s strong military ally, is now “on the edge” of ruin. Pakistani political analysts repeatedly warn Bangladeshis that they see similar political patterns at work here: minusing political leaders, militarisation, milbus, National Security Council etc etc. Are we being set on America’s flight path to greater power by this unconstitutional, unrepresentative government, one which is more accountable to western forces, than to us?
Sample letter that you can send to the Embassy of Iran,
An Appeal from Bangladesh
Date: 22nd October 2008
HE The Ambassador
Embassy of Iran
Gulshan
Dhaka 1212
Re: Appeal for Release of the Kamiar and Arash Alaei
Your Excellency
Bangladesh and the Islamic Republic of Iran have a long history of friendship, and both nations have diverse and compassionate cultures. The Iranian andBangladeshi peoples have historical connections, and accord the highest importance to the recognition of the dignity of each individual
I have heard from colleagues here of the contributions that a young Iranian doctor, Kamiar Aleai, has made in the fields of medicine and public health within Iran and globally.. Unfortunately, I have also recently learned that Dr Alaei, along with his brother Arash Alaei, who both work on issues related to HIV/AIDS, have been imprisoned without charge from June 2008.
Sculptors, painters, artistes and writers on Saturday joined the teachers and students of Dhaka University in a street protest against the removal of baul statues from the airport road roundabout under pressure from religious zealots…Later at a rally, professor emeritus of Dhaka University Serajul Islam Choudhury came down heavily on Islami Oikya Jote leader Fazlul Huq Amini who announced to raze all sculptures to the ground. He also criticised the government’s silence over such threats from fundamentalists. Symbols of national pride like central Shaheed Minar, Aparajeya Bangla and Sangsaptak are not free from such threats, he said. ‘It is not impossible for them to attack our national symbols as they had tried to establish Islamic nationalism in Bangladesh,’ he said, adding that evil forces were issuing such threats with the help of the government. Muntassir Mamun, a professor of history, found no scope for confusion about the present government’s support for the religious fundamentalists. ‘The authorities see no wrong in fundamentalists bringing out procession and violating emergency rules. But they act upon promptly and obstruct when university teachers proceed to form a human chain at Shaheed Minar.’ Cartoonist Rafiqun Nabi, poet Muhammad Samad, dramatics teacher Israfil Shaheen, journalism teachers Getee Ara Nasrin and Robaet Ferdous and drama director M Hamid attended the rally. Sammilita Sangskritik Jote also held a rally at the Central Shaheed Minar in the afternoon denouncing the government’s role of maintaining double standard. ‘Cultural activists need to take permission from military for holding a cultural programme across the country, but the mullahs face no resistance even if they go out for creating anarchy,’ said an activist. Playwright Mamunur Rashid said the fundamentalists could show such audacity as the government did not punish the war criminals yet. Awami League publicity secretary and actor Asaduzzaman Noor said the government was trying to confuse the people and divert their attention to another issue from the next general elections.
[Bangladesh Engineering University Protests. Photo: bdnews24.com]
Bangladesh Chhatra League burnt an effigy of Amini in front of Raju Memorial Monument at the evening to protest his speech. Bangladesh Chhatra Union and the students of fine art painted the street in front of the institute, denouncing the role of the government favouring the bigots. The central steering committee of the 11-Party Alliance on Saturday demanded that the government take stern action against the religious bigots, who are out to destroy the country’s art and culture…The bigots were trying to stifle the nation’s glorious heritage and move the country towards darkness, the leftist leaders said. They also condemned the ‘audacious’ remarks of four party alliance leader Fazlul Haque Amini to demolish all the sculptures….Chaired by Workers Party president Rashed Khan Menon, the meeting was attended among others by Pankaj Bhattachrya, Mohammad Nurul Islam, Giasuddin Haider, Abu Hamed Shahabuddin and Asit Baran. Democratic Left Alliance, a combine of left leaning political parties demanded stern action against Fazlul Haque Amini for his statement for demolition of all sculptures
…the ideas of … philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else. … I am sure that the power of vested interests is vastly exaggerated compared with the gradual encroachment of ideas. Not, indeed, immediately, but after a certain interval … the ideas which civil servants and politicians and even agitators apply to current events are not likely to be the newest. But, soon or late, it is ideas, not vested interests, which are dangerous for good or evil.
That’s how John Maynard Keynes finishes his General Theory. Seven decades after its publication, ideas from that book are once again being applied by governments of all hue and calling across the world. But this post is not about the nasty, brutish and long slump we are heading towards. Instead of that depressing topic, I am going to write about ideas that have shaped political allignments in Bangladesh in the past few decades.
Some might scoff at the very notion that ideas have shaped our politics. There are, after all, ample examples of the basest, most opportunistic political maneuverings devoid of any ideas other than the naked pursuit of money and power. I accept this. But following Keynes, I contend that underlying all else, key differences of ideas have shaped our political allignments. I contend that Gen Zia built his majority coalition in the late 1970s on a set of ideas, and another set of ideas provided the basis to the political opposition to his rule. A lot of water has flown under the Hardinge Bridge in the past three decades, but these ideas are still relevant for our politics. I contend that regardless of what happens in December, it is these ideas that will determine our politics into the next decade.
PROTEST: Wear a Gamcha in Protest Against Lalon Statue Destruction October 16th, 2008: 118th death anniversary of Fakir Lalon Shah October 15th, 2008: Government Officials pull down Lalon statue after protests by Bigots
Tiktiki wrote: “Compromises, compromises…..Since when Bauls became anti Islam?”
NEW AGE/Oct 16/Bigots against baul monument Some Muslim bigots on Wednesday forced government authorities to pull down a monument of bauls on the roundabout at Zia International Airport in Dhaka after they had tried to raze and rallied against the sculpture. The Dhaka City Corporation six months ago decided to erect a monument at the place as part of the city beautification programme.
Sculptor Mrinal Haque about three months and a half ago started building the monument, sculptures of five bauls holding ektaras, single-stringed instruments, symbolising the exuberance of the Bengali culture. The initiative was sponsored by the United Commercial Bank. ‘I have completed 80 per cent of the work amid protests by some Muslim bigots in the name of religious sentiments being hurt,’ Mrinal told New Age. ‘Sensing trouble, the airport and the civil aviation authorities decided to pull down the monument and I agreed to the proposal.’ Several hundred bigots, teamed up as the committee against statue in the airport crossing, tried to stop the initiative just after Mirnal had started work. The bigots on Wednesday gathered near the neighbouring Babu Salam Mosque and brought out a procession demanding that the monument should be immediately dismantled. A large number of lawmen, including Rapid Action Battalion personnel, reached the place, but failed to tackle the situation. The situation deteriorated when several hundred people from different mosques reached the place and joined the protesters at about 3:00pm.
High police officials and the civil aviation authorities at a brief meeting decided to move the sculpture to ward off further trouble. The civil aviation authorities assigned the Fair Enterprise and the Probhati Enterprise to move the sculptures and the protesters joined the demolition job at about 5:00pm. The Airport police told New Age they were pulling down the monument at the directive of higher authorities.
ATM Morshed Alam is an Advocate and Senior Research Organiser at ASK.
Shahida Begum is Programme Coordinator-Child Labour, Save the Children Sweden Denmark.
Jhon Asit Das is Senior Investigator, Investigation Unit, ASK.
Manzoor Hasan is Director, Institute of Governance Studies, BRAC University, Bangladesh.
Mosharraf Hossain is Country Representative, Action on Disability and Development (ADD), Bangladesh
Sara Hossain is a barrister practicing in the Supreme Court of Bangladesh.
Tanim Hossain is a barrister practicing in the Supreme Court of Bangladesh, High Court Division.
Nazrana Imaan is a barrister.
Soma Islam is Deputy Director, Advocacy/Public Interest Litigation, Bangladesh Legal Aid and Services Trust (BLAST).
Jenefa Jabbar is a barrister practicing in the Supreme Court of Bangladesh, High Court Division.
Naeem Mohaiemen works in digital media technology and interdisciplinary art projects.
Faustina Pereira Ph.D, is an Advocate, Supreme Court of Bangladesh and Director, Human Rights and Legal Services, BRAC.
Md. Obaidur Rahman is Deputy Country Representative, Save the Children Sweden Denmark.
Md. Shahiduzzaman is Special Correspondent of the New Age, Dhaka.
Dina M. Siddiqi Ph.D, is a researcher and consultant on gender and human rights. She will be a visiting professor at the South Asian Center, University of Pennsylvania in 2008.
About a year ago, senior figures associated with Jamaat-e-Islami created a furore by making extremely provocative statements about Bangladesh’s Liberation War - a war in which Jamaat’s members actively fought against the country’s independence, perpetrating some of the worst war crimes of that conflict along the way. Indeed, some of the very people making these statements themselves are alleged to be war criminals. The statement reignited the demands to bring the war criminals to a trial.
Here is a summary of the controversy. The reasons for Jamaat’s offensive wasn’t clear to me then (see here), and they’re no more clear now. What is clear to me though is that people like Matiur Rahman Nizami or Ali Ahsan Mujahid — the party’s two top ranking leaders — should be brought to justice for their actions in 1971. What is also clear to me is that the strategies — Shahrier Kabir’s writings linking war crimes trial with secularism or the Sector Commanders’ Forum’s call for banning Jamaat — adopted by those seeking a trial are not going to work. In this post, I offer an alternative approach. Looking forward to a good discussion.
Shamokal leads with news that military has revived previously failed attempt to install National Security Council.
MEMBERS
1. Prime Minister
2. Opposition Leader
3. Defense Minister
4. Law Minister
5. Home Minister
6. Army Chief
7. Air Force Chief
8. Navy Chief
9. Principal Staff Officer, National Defense College
10. BDR (Bangladesh Rifles) Chief
11. Police Chief
12. Ansar Chief
13. DGFI (Directorate General Forces Intelligence) Chief
14. NSI (National Security Intelligence) Chief (more…)
Download: HUMAN RIGHTS FORUM ON UNIVERSAL PERIODIC REVIEW (UPR), BANGLADESH
This report has been prepared by the Human Rights Forum on UPR (‘the Forum’), Bangladesh, a coalition of 17 human rights and development organisations formed to prepare a joint stakeholders’ report under the UPR. Stakeholders
1. Ain o Salish Kendra (ASK), Secretariat/2. Acid Survivors Foundation (ASF)/3. Bangladesh Mohila Parishad (BMP)/4. Bangladesh Institute of Labour Studies (BILS)/5. Bangladesh Legal Aid & Services Trust (BLAST)/6. Bangladesh Dalit and Excluded Rights Movement (BDERM)/7. Centre for Rehabilitation of Torture Survivors (CRTS)/8. D.Net (Development Research Network)/9. Karmojibi Nari (KN)/10. Nagorik Uddyog/11. Nari Uddoyog Kendra (NUK)/12. Nijera Kori/13. Nari Pokkho/14. National Forum of Organizations working with the Disabled (NFOWD)/15. Research and Development Collective (RDC)/16. Steps Towards Development (Steps)/17. Transparency International Bangladesh (TI-B) (more…)
The dates are: Washington DC - October 18
New York - October 25
Toronto - October 26
London - October 30
Get your tickets at www.drishtipat.org/concert2008. Also if you like the advert, feel free to share it with your peoples The link is here.
(Kudos to Ishtiaq who is responsible for creating the advert. Finest graphics dude in Dhaka bar none.)
Andharmanik school is a small primary school in the north east corner of Bangladesh that is attended by girls from surrounding villages. Girls like Minakhsmi did not feel safe to go or return home from school everyday due to poor law and order situation devoiding them from the power of education. With a small grant from the DP challenge competition, a dormitory was built for these girls so that they can safely attend classes during weekdays. With a small help from you, Drishtipat can help you make these concrete actions to empower people in the remotest of areas.
If you have been residing in Bangladesh, you know how Arnob has brought in a remarkable change in Bangladeshi music scene. Arnob’s music is fresh, energizing and most importantly he truly experiments with different genre and has ushered in a touch of world music with Bangla tunes which helps people from any nationality connect with his music. Those who are away from Bangladesh but are in touch with contemporary Bangladeshi music scene are aware of this. Those who aren’t, well, its never too late. For all of the groups above and for people who are interested in Bangladesh, there is a chance coming your way in two weeks. Please DON’T MISS IT!! There is something for everyone. His contemporary hits will please the young music fans, his Rabindra Sangeets and folk songs will please the traditionalists. Arnob is now touring with his spectacular band for Drishtipat in USA, UK and Canada. Along with an array of local talents, Arnob promises spectacular performance. Buy your tickets quick and fast as they are going away and it is going to be a sold out concert.
Concerts start in two weeks. Drishtipat volunteers have been working round the clock to bring the best of Bangladesh to you and also because this is a benefit concert and any benefit will go towards supporting Drishtipat’s 2009 projects. If you have ever thought that the work done by Drishtipat’s volunteers if of any use, please come and show your support.
October 18th: Washington DC
October 25th: New York
October 26th: Toronto
October 30th: London
Come and join us in celebrating Bangladeshi music and Bangladesh. Also if you can not come for any reason, please feel free to donate to our cause. Over the next few days, we will bring you various stories of positive change where you can add your value.
The original piece was published in Forum.
A few yards from the Royal Albert Hall, British Minister Douglas Alexander was grandly offering Bangladesh $25 million a year, over five years, to protect itself against climate change.
Adviser Mirza, a World Bank alumni, surrounded by World Bank officials at the DFID conference after controversially declaring the management of the fund ‘may be’ given to World Bank/photo: Drishtipat
On the same day, a jury in Kent in England was deliberating over six environmental campaigners who had tried to paint the name of the UK prime minister onto part of a massive coal plant. The jury decided that direct action causing minor damage was justified to prevent the greater damage caused by climate change. The six were acquitted.
The 
