Fri 25 Jul 2008
If this is how the Awami League want to save the country, heaven help us. I am responding to the announcement that the League and a former dictator have joined hands.
Imagine this were Chile and Pinochet were still alive.
The Bangladeshi equivalent of what has just happened is that the daughter of Allende has joined hands with Pinochet to launch a political alliance against another military-created party with a party of traitors heding behind religion (a sort of ultra right Opus Dei). Normal people would condemn this out of sight.
The grand alliance of the Awami League and the Jatiyo Party is anything but grand. It smells of 1986 when the two colluded in a sham election. Then the Awami League (and JSD’s Rob) perpetuated the dictatorship for a further four miserable years. All in the cheap pursuit of power, costly to the nation.
So the Bangladeshi electorate has a choice on the one hand between an opportunist party allied to a military dictator’s outfit, which counts ex-Muslim League politicians in its ranks. On the other hand, stands another military-created party with pro-Pakistani collaborators joining hands.
The latter will send shivers through the minorities who remember the 2001 pogrom only too well.
The former have proved that representative politics in South Asia reeks of corruption, small mindedness and a complete lack of principle.
The only good news from the region this week is that the untouchables (Dalits) and the Left, with regional parties (worth 100 seats out of 630) in the Indian parliament will form an alliance or Third Front. Despite Nandigram, (which I condemn), this alliance at least seeks to redress the gross inequalities in that country.
That kind of thinking is missing in Bangladesh. No one is on the centre, let alone left. They all congregate on the right, tugging at the coat tails of ambassadors and Donor chiefs.
Well, is this what so many people wished for when they campaigned for a return to democracy?
Whichever bunch exercises power (and I include the traitorous current regime) seems to be intent on creating a monumental crisis two perhaps three years down the line.
Yes, I believe the AL-JP outfit would be likeliest to win at the ballot box. However, rather than promote secularism, they will polarise the country amid continued economic mismanagement. The attempt at working with those hardline Islamic groups (blame pinned on Jalil, though I find it hard that Hasina and the rest could not have been party to it) in December 2006 follows a pattern, running from 1986 to 1991 and it seems to 2008.
The ditching of Badsha in Rajshahi shows how fair weather friends they can be. It also shows the lack of discipline or authority in the League. Even now, so many people near to me hope that the Awami League can make a difference. I feel that hope is misplaced.
If the League betrays its natural constituency once again, then it will be curtains for that party. The next generation in waiting had better not give up their day job. They will be booted out much earlier than they think.
To those apologists who retort: so what would you advise AL to do then?
Answer: draw up a meaningful economic programme which is Left of Centre and go to the country to explain during the election. Tell us what difference you would make to the majority’s livelihoods if your programme is still going to follow the Aid Consortium to the letter.
While the state of emergency exists, you will be hamstrung but don’t say you cannot diseminate it around the world to NRBs and use media to tell people. Many newspapers would still print your message, individually written in Dhaka. You would be heard.
Over the last 18 months, all we have heard is how you want your leaders out. Why can you not simultaneously tell us what you would do for the people - in detail, rather than your favourite one liners?
And please do not insult everyone’s intelligence by comparing inflation in 1998 with 2008. Oil was $12 then and commodities were dirt cheap.
I detest the current regime as many others but using spurious comparisons shows a lack of preparation. And an unwillingness to ensure that no more Kansats and Phulbaris happen again.
Sheikh Hasina says she had time (11 months worth) to think about the plight of her people. So did the front bench. Well, where are the solutions then?
Be honest and disassociate from Ershad and perhaps the Bikalpa dharas and similar flotsam. Winning at all costs is exactly what we do not need.
July 25th, 2008 at 9:31 am
But at the same time, i shudder to think of a BNP-Jamaat alliance ruling the country for the next four years.
The political system in our country is such that we think who is worse than who, instead of who is better than who. I wonder if that will ever change, not in my lifetime I think.
July 25th, 2008 at 5:21 pm
Instead of criticizing potential political combines, wouldn’t it be more helpful anticipating their more probable mistakes and brainstorming about how to best prevent them? And creating a ruckus about it in advance?
For example, if we believe if BNP-JI being voted back to power will herald bad things for Bangladesh’s minorities, we should highlight all the atrocities that happened in the past in similar situations and create awareness so that it does not happen again.
Similarly, if AL-JP is voted back to power, I certainly hope that Ershad is not made the president again. That too is an issue we should be vocal about.
July 25th, 2008 at 9:27 pm
Aren’t we forgetting the primary reason for getting where we are today? If I remember it right, we wanted a FREE and FAIR election and that’s what started all the events since 1/11. So how optimistic are we about a free and fair election in december 2008? Is there any reason to beleive that the upcoming election under this govt. will be FREE and FAIR? Does not thins regime have the most to lose if the outcome of the election doesn’t go in their favor in terms of legitimizing all of their actions in the two years? Then what reason do I have to expect them to be act as the unbiased referee during the election? They’re not playing the part up intil now!!
Don’t you think it’s more timely and appropriate to raise your voice for a FREE and FAIR election before doing so about the events that come after the election?
July 25th, 2008 at 9:31 pm
It is better the devils you know than the devils you dont.
July 25th, 2008 at 10:11 pm
It will be a mistake to dub this piece as a pure criticism of the potential party combines. It raises some interesting points, some good suggestions and a sharp summary of AL’s recent history.
While BNP-JI alliance probably form more of a monolithic bloc than the AL-JP combo, the latter is no less sinister. Deja vu 1986.
As for drawing up a meaningful economic programme, AL (or BNP) will not do it because it serves them well to keep things foggy. If party obscurantism is a sign of political cowardice, then it can be assumed they are scared of spelling out their beliefs (if there’s any left) and more importantly, their recommendations for the future (if they thought of any).
Let’s also be clear that even if AL comes to power without going to bed with JP, they will not promote secularism, because secularism in Bangladesh is sadly misconstrued as somewhat anti-Islam, and AL’s “popularity” will be at stake.
P.S. Thanks for the Chile/Pinochet example, it is apt and brilliant!
July 26th, 2008 at 1:11 am
This ‘Bishho Behaya’ Ershad is the most corrupt man in BD. A symbol of corruption( RANGS Bhavan) was demolished but nothing happened to this ‘Bishho Behaya’. During the last few years AWL has redesigned itself as Awami Muslim League. An alliance with JP is not shocking anymore, last time it was an islamist party who wants to make fatwa legal.
AWL claims that this CTG is their anodoloner foshol. BNP would not forget what happened to them at the hand of this military Govt just like AWL cannot forget how Zia came to power and rewarded the heroes of 1975 revolution. My fear is that rivalry will get bitter in the coming days and if I assume that military will go back to barrack after the election, they won’t forget the taste of these ‘sweet 2 years’ ( ’07 and ’08). Since 1958 we are on this track, no one is saying that we need to de-militarize our politics. I read a book by T.N Seshan ( forgot the name of the book) that describes the corrupt and miserable scene of Indian politics. We need people like him in EC and ACC to make these institutes strong and independent. The short term Military solution won’t solve the problem.
You need a meaningful economic program when you have competition from other side.
As long as the ‘misrule’ of other side is enough to win, we won’t see any meaningful program from any side. Whoever goes to power, it will be a very difficult situation with the power crisis, gas crisis and price hike. Without emergency, people won’t sit idle in home when the situation has become ‘ current ekhon jai na , ashe’.
Something went seriously wrong in our national life. We have seen the ugly face of religion based politics in 1971 , still this brand of politics is the dominating force now, secularism is viewed as anti-islam, Where did we go wrong?
July 26th, 2008 at 1:29 am
Farid Bakht writes:
Be honest and disassociate from Ershad and perhaps the Bikalpa dharas and similar flotsam. Winning at all costs is exactly what we do not need.
Be honest to what, exactly? The only thing the AL will ever be honest to is it’s own political expediency and survival instincts.
This is a party that only last year hopped in then out of bed with the clerical fascists of Khelafat Majlis.
If the writer thinks that the Awami League is representative of Center-Left liberalism, he is projecting his own wish fulfillment onto the Awami League’s shattered record. It is time to bury, once and for all, the old myth that has been passed down, for the most part by oral tradition, that the Awami League is vaguely representative of the Left. This might have been the case in 1971 but today it is a categorical untruth.
For those of us who really value Center-Left liberal politics to stop, once and for all, falling for this old lie.
July 26th, 2008 at 3:03 am
Farid, welcome to UV. As a follower of your writing (in Forum and in Gideon Rachman’s blog for example), I eagerly look forward to many thought provoking posts.
Some thoughts.
1. A fundamental question: what do you think ‘left’ and ‘right’ mean in Bangladesh?
We see a lot of words like progressive, liberal, secular, nationalist, anti-imperialist, pro-people, pro-Islamic values etc bandied about. I’ve never heard anyone describe themselves as reactionary, anti-poor, pro-imperialist, anti-Islam etc. So these labels are surely a bit devoid of any meaning. Perhaps we would see a future post what you mean by ‘left’ and ‘right’?
2. One possible left-right demarcation may be this.
Right: nationalism based on Bengali Muslim identity, economic policy based on private enterprise, and a meausured attitude towards India.
Left: nationalism based on Bengali identity (since this included the non-Muslim Bengalis into the fold of ‘us’, it could be mistakenly called secularism), economic policy based on government (socialism of some form or other), and a relaxed attitude to India.
I contend this demarcation reasonably accuratedly describes Bangladeshi political scene around 1980. Most of the right supported Zia, while the left was divided between Zia-supporters, AL, and smaller parties like JSD.
I also contend that this demarcation became obsolete long ago. The identity issues were relevant to the ‘cultured class’ in a newly independent country. For most Bangladeshis born after Liberation, Bengali vs Bengali Muslim debates are meaningless. There is a very real question about how we integrate the marginalised into the fold of ‘us’, but no one really talks about that.
On the economic matters, the idea that nationalisation of the means of production and redistribution of private property is the way to improve people’s living standard has been discredited. Everyone serious about economic development accepts the role of private enterprise. And the living standard of most Bangladeshis have actually improved a lot over the ast generation as we embraced the market.
But there are genuine questions about different people benefitting differently. There are issues about how economic change has affected socio-cultural norms and relations. Not everyone is happy with the way things have been, and frequently for good reasons. These concerns have been taken up, much more than anyone else, by Islamists of different hue and size. Does this make the Islamists left?
If we want to argue that we need a ‘left of centre’ party, then the first principle question of what are ‘lefts’ and ‘rights’ need to be asked.
3. Most of our intellectuals have been stuck in the obsolete notions of ‘left’ and ‘right’. But during the election-oriented era of 1990-2006, politics moved to a non-ideological ground. This non-ideological politics was based on tactical manuevres of andolon and alliance, of touting one’s credential as crime buster vs price stability. It was in this Hasina Zia vs Sheikh Khaleda politics that produced the AL-JI-JP andolon (1995), AL-JP coalition (1996-2001), BNP-JI alliance (since 2001), auction over JP, Al-KM pact (2006) and now another AL-JP alliance.
Some of these tactical posturings might seem better than others depending on one’s own views. I tend to think that in the absence of any ideologically grounded party, the choice ought to be based on performance. This doesn’t mean I’d discount ideology. But again, I ask, what is left in ‘left’, and what is right in ‘right’?
4. In addition to the reality of non-ideological present, we also have another reality. That reality is an ambitious general trying to create a dictatorship. The most urgent task before the political junkies today should be stop that dictatorship. I contend that the best way to achieve this is through an unambiguous victory of an opposition coalition. If an AL-JP coalition led by Hasina (or a BNP-JI coalition led by Khaleda) achieves this, then that is still better than a situation where Hasina (or Khaleda) gives Gen Moeen the presidency with reserved power and an NSC. I contend that a rather debased democracy is still better than a garrison state run by soldier-politician-businessmen.
5. Finally, there was more to AL’s success in keeping inflation low than cheap oil. One very important factor was a strong taka-rupee exchange rate that kept imports (formal and smuggled) cheap. The BNP government a significant depreciation of taka against rupee, and I contend that this was a very important reason why inflation started rising in Bangladesh much earlier than globally.
In terms of current inflation, global factors are of course very important. But in addition, there is a huge expectations element. People expect inflation to continue, and that drives up inflation. There is no easy way to tackle this. But a government with massive popular support is better placed to make hard decisions than one that is in power because of army backing.
July 26th, 2008 at 7:49 am
And I forgot to add, the Pinochet analogy is not at all apt. Ershad is guilty of many things, but killing Sheikh Sahib and his family is not one of them.
But Chilean may well provide important lessons for us. When Pinochet eventually left power in 1990, he set up a series of institutional arrangements that gave the army a say in power and ensured indemnity for himself. Democratic elections since then have consistently returned a centre-left coalition which includes Allende’s party. It took Chile nearly a decade to unwind the army’s role in politics, and Chile eventually has been trying Pinochet and his henchmen for their abuses.
It may be more apt to compare our serving generals, not old ones like Ershad, to Pinochet.
July 26th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
Jyoti (#9), I see your point and agree with you on the Chilean lessons, which we should take on board. Nonetheless, I think Farid drew comparison on the tangent that both Pinochet and Ershad were dictators. And just that. Its an opinion, which you can disagree with the facts, digging deeper.
(Of course, we are all inordinately fond of facts but that can get dull and pedantic at times. I find that with many bloggers making their writings inert and dim, totally devoid of bright opinions and filled with history lessons.)
August 7th, 2008 at 4:37 am
Ershad could take lesson from the immediate past BNP government on how to exercise dictotorial power. Tarique zia, Falu, Babar and gong have done more damage to our country than Ershad ever did or was capale of. If you don’t mind the BNP to contest the next election why do you have a problem with Ershad/JP and AL joining together?? Be a bit balanced please.