Sun 29 Jun 2008
- Somalia 114.2

- Sudan 113.0
- Zimbabwe 112.5
- Chad 110.9
- Iraq 110.6
- D. R. Congo 106.7
- Afghanistan 105.4
- Cote d’Ivoire 104.6
- Pakistan 103.8
- Central African Republic 103.7
- Guinea 101.8
- Bangladesh 100.3
- Burma 100.3
- Haiti 99.3
- North Korea 97.7
- Ethiopia 96.1
[ Graph: The Fund For Peace, Washington, D.C.]
The above is the list of the worst performers in the The failed States Index 2008 recently published jointly by US based Foreign Policy Magazine and The Fund For peace. According to this ranking, Bangladesh in the year 2007-2008 had the fastest decline towards a failed nationhood. Bangladesh was 17th worst in 2005, improved to 19th in 2006 but started to decline in 2007 when she ranked 16th and this year Bangladesh ranked 12th, a tie with Burma. Countries who traditionally fared much worse than us, have improved and passed us in last two years. Notable among these are Haiti, Rwanda or Sierra Leon. The foreign policy magazines clearly identifies the states with significant improvement,
But the report was alarmed at the fast decline of Bangladesh as it points out,
Bangladesh took this year’s hardest fall, set off in part by postponed elections, a feuding, deadlocked government, and the imposition of emergency rule that has dragged on for more than 18 months…
A very interesting observation by the Foreign Policy magazine was the irony of our contribution to UN peacekeeping force.
Ironically, Bangladesh and Pakistan are the world’s top two contributors of U.N. peacekeepers, often deploying troops to the very countries enjoying this year’s biggest advances. Pakistanis constitute the largest national U.N. contingent operating in Liberia. More than 9,000 Bangladeshi troops wear U.N. blue helmets around the world, a third of them in the Ivory Coast. It is a reminder that while helping to maintain peace abroad might be an attractive national project, keeping the peace at home can be even more elusive.
Foreign policy magazine emphasizes, very clearly, the need of a vibrant and independent Parliament and decries the role of customized rubber stamp parliament our de facto ruler in planning on imposing on our nation.
Every autocrat’s wish list probably includes having a country rich in resources, a public prone to hero worship, and a rubber-stamp parliament. But, when it comes to legislatures, dictators should be careful what they wish for: The world’s most vulnerable states are also home to the weakest parliaments, according to the Parliamentary Powers Index, a ranking of these bodies based on factors such as the power to declare war, impeach the executive, and establish veto-proof laws. Leaders most adept at legislative manipulation often simply extend their own rule; last year, Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev persuaded his pliant parliament to declare him president for life. Others, like Burma’s military junta, simply ban the legislature from convening altogether. But these results should send a clear message to the world’s autocrats: Sometimes, it can be a good thing if the House wins.
“In 2007, several countries that have long served as the poster children for failed states managed to achieve some unlikely gains. The Ivory Coast, which unraveled in 2002 after a flawed election divided north and south, experienced a year of relative calm thanks to a new peace agreement. Liberia, the most improved country in last year’s index, continued to make gains due to a renewed anticorruption effort and the resettlement of nearly 100,000 refugees. And Haiti, long considered the basket case of the Western Hemisphere, stepped back from the edge, with moderate improvements in security in the capital’s violence-ravaged slums.”
It is not a happy thing to blog about. This report does not make any Bangladeshi happy. But I post this, with a flicker of hope that, our fellow NRBs and Urban Bangladeshi’s will wake up from the dream and see the reality. The reality is that the current Army Chief controlled puppet government of Bangladesh is not the panacea and not even the better of two bad. Report after report is coming out with damning indictment of this government’s performance. And it is not a matter of whether this government was given adequate time or not. After the take over of 11 January, 2007, on most of the objective indicators of a nation’s well being, Bangladesh’s decade long development has taken a U turn.
And most most importantly this report clearly cites the failure of a designed democracy to suit a military General or an elite class. This report has clearly shown that a free, strong, vibrant and fairly elected parliament is vital to nations well being.
But with great apprehension I suspect that we are heading towards a direction away from a free, strong, vibrant and fairly elected parliament. At least these rhetoric’s of army chief General Moeen U Ahmed, “If they want to make trouble, let them” ; or “”You can judge the people of a nation by the type of leaders they select,” etc. make us fear that we may be heading towards a rubber stamp ‘Yes General’ Parliament.
June 30th, 2008 at 5:58 am
This piece gives a good background on this index
http://www.thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=17818
The political matrix used to calculate this will give the context of why Bangladesh’s ranked fell drastically this year and again highlights the need of a free, fair and credible election this year.
The index’s ranks are based on twelve indicators of state vulnerability — four social, two economic and six political. The indicators are not designed to forecast when states may experience violence or collapse. Instead, they are meant to measure a state’s vulnerability to collapse or conflict. Countries are categorized based on red, orange and yellow zones. Some in the yellow zone may be failing at a faster rate than those in the more dangerous orange or red zones, and therefore could experience violence sooner. Conversely, some in the red zone, though critical, may exhibit some positive signs of recovery or be deteriorating slowly, giving them time to adopt mitigating strategies.
…
Political indicators: Criminalisation and/or delegitimisation of the state: Endemic corruption or profiteering by ruling elites and resistance to transparency, accountability and political representation, including any widespread loss of popular confidence in state institutions and processes.
Progressive deterioration of public services: A disappearance of basic state functions that serve the people, including failure to protect citizens from terrorism and violence and to provide essential services, such as health, education, sanitation, public transportation. Also using the state apparatus for agencies that serve the ruling elites, such as the security forces, presidential staff, central bank, diplomatic service, customs and collection agencies.
Widespread violation of human rights: An emergence of authoritarian, dictatorial or military rule in which constitutional and democratic institutions and processes are suspended or manipulated. Outbreaks of politically inspired (as opposed to criminal) violence against innocent civilians. A rising number of political prisoners or dissidents who are denied due process consistent with international norms and practices.
Security apparatus as ’state within a state’ : An emergence of elite guards that operate with impunity. Emergence of state-sponsored or state-supported private militias that terrorize political opponents, suspected “enemies,” or civilians seen to be sympathetic to the opposition. An “army within an army” that serves the interests of the dominant military or political clique.
Rise of factionalised elites: A fragmentation of ruling elites and state institutions along group lines. Any use of nationalistic political rhetoric by ruling elites, often in terms of communal irredentism or of communal solidarity (e.g., “ethnic cleansing” or “defending the faith”).
Intervention of other states or external factors: Military or para-military engagement in the internal affairs of the state at risk by outside armies, states, identity groups or entities that affect the internal balance of power or resolution of the conflict. Intervention by donors, especially if there is a tendency towards over-dependence on foreign aid or peacekeeping missions.
June 30th, 2008 at 6:36 am
i think tht the caretaker govt is given too much blame for our economic woes…it is an extremely harsh economic environment worldwide…it is quite normal tht our country which is so prone to natural disasters and does not produce oil will be hard hit…having said that I am not defending this govt but they hav sent a message to our politicians tht we have been wanting to send for a long time: you ARE NOT untouchable
June 30th, 2008 at 6:41 am
also, dont pay too much attention to these indicies by the US…they only hav their fancy statistics…the fact tht they group us with those African nations shows tht they know nothing about the Bengali spirit…a military govt will simply NOT survive in Bangladesh…such a govt can try to stay as long as it wants but eventually it will be forced out
before this govt exits, i sincerely hope, as unlikely as it may be, they make the constitutional ammendments necessary for parliamentary democracy to function properly
June 30th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
” also, dont pay too much attention to these indicies by the US…they only hav their fancy statistics…the fact tht they group us with those African nations shows tht they know nothing about the Bengali spirit…”
Quadir
Do you remember something like TIB and the Corruption perception Indeex? Isn’t the main spirit of 11 January is another such ” fancy statistics” coming out of Berlin?
I do not reject the idea of ignoring these western prescribed data and be positive with our enduring Bengali spirit. But we can not accept and reject selectively based on our likings. If you accept TIB ranking, you have to accept this. If you reject, reject them both.
June 30th, 2008 at 2:22 pm
Shouldn’t we accept/reject the result of an analysis based on whether we consider the analysis to be sound rather than whether it is “western” or whether I accept some other analysis that was conducted quite differently?
The TIB report is a household survey on Bangladesh (see http://www.ti-bangladesh.org/research/HHSurvey07full180608.pdf - see section 1.5).
The FSI report is based on primarily software based analysis of media reports and public documents. (http://www.fundforpeace.org/web/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=102&Itemid=327 see answer to Q3)
Both studies will have strengths, weaknesses, and biases. Given that they so different methodologically, I find it difficult to extend any opinion on the soundness of one to the other.
Rumi - I don’t see why one needs to accept or reject both.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:35 pm
#5
yes, you may have biases against one over the other depending on your assessment of methodology. But you can not denounce this report only because ” it is a fancy statistics from USA”.
Plus there is a big press misinformation of the TIB report. Press did never specifically mention that the report means what Bangladesh people think about corruption in Bangladesh. That was not any investigative proof of corruption. But as a result, people started believing more strongly that Bangladesh is really corrupt believing that westerns are saying these after investigation. And we entered a vicious cycle of news feeding and believing and six times lowest tanking CPI. Press also failed to project that starting 2001, Bangladesh’s CPI improved in a faster pace than many neighbouring countries until 2006. 2007 was the first year our CPI did not improve.
June 30th, 2008 at 4:59 pm
I admire wht TIB stands for, Ive read some of the papers theyve published on various countries e.g. steps to improve judiciary etc. but their rankings are COMPLETELY off…we may be corrupt but our institutions are nowher near as corrupt as countries like Yemen, Nigeria, speaking frm personal exp btw
June 30th, 2008 at 8:00 pm
Even if there were no TI(B) in the world, I could see the level of corruptions spread all over at all levels in Bangladesh. Millions of common, illiterate people in the country who never heard of TI, breathe their frustrations everyday with “dehstare durninti khaia falailo” when they face corruptions in different scales in the country.
June 30th, 2008 at 10:20 pm
1) #6 says: “Press did never specifically mention that the report means what Bangladesh people think about corruption in Bangladesh.”
Is this quite correct? The TI(B) report says (methodology section 1.5):
“The selected households were asked questions regarding corruption they experienced in the last one year through a structured questionnaire.”
The survey asks about actual incidences of corruption experienced, not about perception of corruption.
2) #6: What CPI do you mean? Inflation?
July 1st, 2008 at 12:07 am
#9.
I meant corruption perception index. You ask Gofur Miah with one structured question and he yells everybody is thief. That is exactly what TIB has done. They have asked people for encounters what they perceived as corruption. This sort of perception index are very weak and subject to manipulation by media reports.
And yes I meant corruption perception index. The lower the score, the worse you are. CPI 3 was put by some as the magic number from when one country may be termed less corrupt.
And here are the corruption perception index scores of Bangladesh,
2001 we were 0.4,
2002 we were 1.2
2003 we were 1.3
2004 we were 1.5
2005 we were 1.7
2006 we were 2.0
And in 2007 after all the heavenly deeds from our generals, we still are 2.0,i.e. no improvement. I really hope in 2008, the CPI will again start improving.)
( Computing from 2001 to 2006 trend, to reach the magical number of 3.0, we needed approximately 3 more years. Then we would have been less corrupt than most of the nations, as long as TIB CPI is concerned. And Prof Muzaffar Ahmed himself once said it is more important how well and fast we keep improving the score.)
From 2001 to 2006, While we improved by CPI of 1.6, India improved by 0.6,Pakistan Decreased by 0.1, and Sri Lanka decreased by 0.3
And Burma, after 45 years of Military rule, is at the bottom now.
And you mentioned CPI Inflation, here is the graph of CPI inflation pre-post 1/11 as per Bangladesh Bank.
July 1st, 2008 at 12:12 am
Just to add that nobody denies rampant corruption in Bangladesh. Rather my point is to emphasize that 1/11 is by no means a panacea to our financial corruption. 1/11 kind of changes only do worsen the state of a nation.
July 1st, 2008 at 2:14 am
1) “That is exactly what TIB has done.”
There is perhaps a bit of confusion. There are two different reports we are talking about here.
(a) The recent TI(B) report on Bangladesh linked from my post above (link again: http://www.ti-bangladesh.org/research/HHSurvey07full180608.pdf)
(b) The “Corruption Perception Index” published by TI. See here: http://www.transparency.org/policy_research/surveys_indices/cpi
The two are different. (a) is a household survey where people are asked about actual incidences of corruption they faced. You have described (b) yourself.
The two are not the same. Rumi - do you mean (b), or do you mean that even the structured questions in (a) aimed at understanding actual incidences of corruption are just getting perception only?
2. Thank you for posting the link to BB CPI inflation. It’s completely irrelevant to the current discussion, but I guess can make for an interesting distraction ( …. to people who like looking at inflation charts for distraction).
- hijibijbij
July 1st, 2008 at 3:56 am
I think there is a point that is being lost in all the debate about methodology (which by the way is a fascinating discussion).
When CTG came in on 1/11/07 they have strong support inside Bangladesh, from the Embassies and the US foreign policy establishment. Each had very different reasons for giving their support.
Support inside BD because just fed up with the chaos ripping BD apart through 2006 (and to its credit, CTG has kept chaos relatively under control).
Support from Embassies for constellation of interested, including stability, business, etc.
Support from US foreign policy establishment for various reasons, including the fear that continued chaos would push BD towards terrorism. The Army was seen as the only institution that can hold that back.
Over time, much of that support has shrunk in all sectors. I find it interesting that institutions allied to US foreign policy apparatchiks are also gradually starting to sound alarm bells. Of course there are many strands of US foreign policy orgs, and this represents only one such strand, but it is interesting for those prognosticating linked/growing/future trends.
July 1st, 2008 at 5:20 am
Very much agree with #13. The CTG+Army have to really work hard to keep the faith of all those parties you mentioned. The number one party is the people of the country. Once people get fed up, this CTG+Army gong will have to think twice about their fate.
July 1st, 2008 at 5:26 am
#12, there is in fact no confusion, unless you are trying to create one. The basis of our national 5th Kolema ” Bangladesh prithibir shobcheye durniti grosto desh” is based on CPI and Bangladesh has improved on that CPI every year from 2001 to 2006 and only in 2007 we did not have any improvement in CPI. The other report by TIB is a different one and Bangladesh did not become champion in corruption based on this reprt.
And even if you dig deep into this second TIB study, you will see in their breakdown of corruption, 38.6% complaint was about negligence while only 1.7% was extorion. And this report includes a variety of social sectors including teaching quality, doctors care etc.
And you yourself brought up CPI inflation, and I just had to show you both the CPI graphs.
Now I believe we should move ahead. Lets discuss the current failed state index, dissect the report and find out why we are failing.
July 1st, 2008 at 11:49 am
#15 - Confusion could’ve been mine only, e.g. I did not know the other meaning of CPI as corruption perception index. I only knew it as an inflation indicator.
Just wanted to make the point that we should look beyond headline numbers and one-dimensional rankings before paying too much attention to study.
Rumi - Thanks for clarification and let’s move on.
July 1st, 2008 at 2:15 pm
Not a big surprise. In fact, if Foreign Policy had never troubled itself with the politics, and focused its attention merely on the long-term fundamentals - demographic, economic, environmental, etc - they could have come up with pretty much the same results and bypassed all this controversy.
July 2nd, 2008 at 4:08 am
Foreign policy magazine is a NEOCONSERVATIVE mouthpiece. It was founded by Samuel P Huntington- whose “clash of civilizations” has Bangladesh in the losing (ie non-Western) hemisphere.
It also publishes “The World’s Most Dangerous Ideas”
It’s scholarly chicanery and punditry at its worst- pretending to make scholarly arguments under the guise of a corporate/imperialistic/orientalist/oligarchical agenda.
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:04 am
And here are the corruption perception index scores of Bangladesh,
2001 we were 0.4,
2002 we were 1.2
2003 we were 1.3
2004 we were 1.5
2005 we were 1.7
2006 we were 2.0
by the way, does this mean, under Hawa bhobon and BNP we were improving in curbing corruption ???
I thought, prothom-alo told us a different story all together!!!
July 2nd, 2008 at 5:54 pm
Thank god for American Student.
Please keep up with your visits to drishtipat.
Rumi @ 4
Yes. Bangladeshis must look at all, & any, statistics & critiques of Bangladesh to enable a better maturing of Bangladesh. I see no need to shirk away from it. Take stock of it all, if possible.
July 4th, 2008 at 4:58 pm
I am a little bit surprise and disappointed to see our regular contributor Mr KGazi missing from this thread. I was waiting for a thought provoking analysis from Mr Gazi that would have cleared our confusions created by the ‘western style’ ranking-grading of the performance of the current Messiah run government.
July 5th, 2008 at 7:10 am
Rumi - I did have couple of comments to make, couldn’t post it earlier:
1). I am actually surprised that failed State Index (FSI) has gone down in 2008, as I would think pre 1/11 was closer to a “failed state” than now, and 1/11 rather improved the foundations of long-term stability conditions. But I think we can explain this fall in FSI by the fact that the CRITERIA for FSI are software-programmed and not that ‘intelligent’ to see unusual climate.
2) I generally agree with BOTH TI’s CPI-index (corruption) and this FSI index, on year-to-year basis - as they give BENCHMARKS for policy making. However we have to take into consideration SPECIAL circumstances, classic case Bangladesh post 1/11, where a CTG is extended for a massive anti-corruption drive.
3). If the criteria for worsening FSI are - govt overthrown, or ‘democracy’ ousted, PM jailed or ministers convicted - then obviously Bangladesh got worse. But were those criteria done under NORMAL regular-running governance? No. There was a governance glitch which needed special action.
4) Under these ’special’ conditions, worsening of FSI is not necessarily a worsening of a country’s future, but the index is programmed to report a worsening in FSI. Bangladesh may in fact be VERY prone to failed state now, because of failed governance, but besides civilan govts in power, all other criteria were the same - yet the FSI index was unaware of the incompetence of the govt and parliament, pre 1/11.
5) One criteria that may have sent the FSI computer haywire is that “hundreds of politicians were arrested for corruption, and 2 PM’s were jailed”!! That maybe an indication to computer program, that govt is TOO corrupt - hence lower the FSI !! Although that may be an accurate indication for post 1/11, the computer DID NOT KNOW in 2006 that ministers were “too corrupt”. All it knew was that country was running a smooth democracy! and ministers were ‘cool’. Hence 2006 FSI was a better number.
6) FSI may (will) be down temporarily during CTG regime, naturally due to emergency treatment (post surgery intensive care), but FSI will be MUCH better in the long run after recovery, than if there was no CTG (surgery) at all.
So, based on this FSI - I dont think we can conclude that “1/11 kind of changes only do worsen the state of a nation,” (Rumi #11), because this FSI only uses pre-programmed criteria, which needs to be manually overridden for special corrective circumstances (which did not exist before 2007).
July 5th, 2008 at 10:00 am
Comment 22…another candidate for UV Hall of fame — Computer going haywire calculating the index. :). Nice one.
July 6th, 2008 at 4:28 am
#22,
Thanks for your thought provoking and at the same time thought blocking analysis. My thought is blocked now.
Just one things, Messiah’s usualy come under special circumstances. So specual condition can not give anyone any waiver. These are the same special condition when Ayub Khan came, so did Yahya Khan or Hossain Muhammad Ershad.
July 6th, 2008 at 6:27 am
Rumi, no problem, you asked for it you got it.
Well, if every General was like Yahya or Ershad - then every politician would be like Mugabe or Marcos. But they arent, are they? Cannot have an anti-army “mind-block” like a gangster’s anti-police mindset.
We gotta give CTG a chance - unless you wannna go back to pre 1/11, which was a total disaster.
July 10th, 2008 at 7:03 pm
here’s the latest by Saleem Samad: http://www.countercurrents.org/samad100708.htm
‘To conclude, Bangladesh’s present military-driven government has made many promises and taken many initiatives, but failed to perform neutrally and satisfactorily, with good governance, transparency and accountability.
Supporters of the government usually respond to this allegation in two ways. First, they accuse all critics of “tarnishing the image of the country,” as if performance is nothing and image is everything. Second, they say that it is too early to judge them: they have not been given a fair chance or enough time to clean up all the mess that Bangladesh was in. The first accusation has no substance. To the second accusation we say, the job of the caretaker government, by Constitution, is to hold elections toward a return to democracy. Their job is not to fix everything in the country, and claiming to fix everything an ominous excuse to hold on to power.’