After a lot of fumbling, failures and reform buzzwords, it seems that the government has come up with its own exit strategy. No, it has nothing to do with continuing reform or fixing our institutes. Its simply about their collective backside getting protected by ensuring their hold in the power for the long term.

Based on judging last few month’s of events and recently reports, the exit strategy now centers around Dhaner Sheesh and it looks like this:

  • Create a splinter group of BNP whom the election commission would give the dhaner sheesh symbol.
  • Float multiple smaller parties and create a loose coalition of Jatiyotabadi forces and civil society elements which will include this fake BNP with Ershad’s JP, Badruddoza’s BDB, PDP, Dr. Kamal Hossain’s Gonoforum etc.
  • Ensure that this front gets at least 130 odd seats and a majority or at least enough to hold the balance of power.
  • Post election, elect General Moeen U Ahmed as the president of Bangladesh by the obedient governing party.
  • Create a national security council under the president to make sure that President Moeen U Ahmed have enough power to control the army after his retirement.
  • Rule the country via a defacto military-civilian oligarchy
  • If any of the above chain of events fail, the election will be stalled. That will also be done in a ‘constitutional’ way. The recent rezoning of the parliamentary districts makes it possible that the stalling of the election will be one law suit away.
  • In the event of a violent protests by the political parties, elections will be stalled as well calling it a national security issue and the country will then be effectively ruled by the newly formed national security council or a ‘national unity government’ made up of pet BNP-AL leaders.

Follow the past few months activities, and the next few months, it will all fall into place. Also the recent ICG report has hinted on it as well quoting an unnamed international diplomat.

When or if the dust settles in Bangladesh, we may see a retired army chief as president, another retired army chief as the anti-corruption czar, a retired general administering elections and a security council which takes the advice of three or more generals as to how to manage the country.And this could be the best case scenario for Bangladesh’s civilian democracy.

The bloggers had predicted bits and pieces of this some time ago but as the plan is now getting implemented, there are reasons to get very very worried about it and about our future.

For someone like K Gazi, this is a good scenario to keep the ‘nasty’ politicians in check and have a balance of power. But that completely ignores the reality of Bangladeshi politics and the people. This artificial solution will not work there but rather put the army and the people of Bangaladesh directly on a confrontational path.

This is a potential suicide mission for Bangladesh for four reasons.

1. This puts the political parties in fierce collission course with the government/army and puts our country in the path of instability from which no one will come out as a winner other than the the people who will look for opportunity among chaos and confusion.

2. In this age of electronic media, the level of political awareness among people is at an all time high. The general public of Bangladesh is patiently awaiting a free and fair election as per the road map and is giving this government the benefit of doubt. An engineered election with predictable outcome will swing the electorate against the govt fast and furiously.

3. There is no denying that due to price of essentials and lack of services, the popularity of this government is at an all time low. There are already news of workers’ unrest. International organizations are predicting mass civil discontent against governments across the world. Bangladesh will not be any different. In all likelihood, this discontent may spread like wildfire which will swiftly be joined by the aggrieved political party workers. Will the government be able to control it? Even if it can on the short term — but for how long?

4. Regimes that are created illegally like this has its own way of becoming corrupt and die a fast, horrific and unnatural death. This one will be of no exception. But with it, it will take down the future of our country as well.

So what is the way out? The ICG recommendation lays it out nicely and this is the only viable exit strategy for the current government, if it wants to go honourably. But any dialogues should first start with the immediate stoppage of election commission’s unholy attempt to steal the election symbol of BNP.

So what is the way out which reduces the chance of confrontation the most ?

As per ICG:

To the Caretaker Government (CTG) and the Military:

1. Lift the state of emergency, including complete cancellation of the Emergency Power Rules (EPR), at least two months ahead of any elections to create conditions conducive for free and fair contests.

2. Carry out the following steps ahead of elections:
(a) immediately rescind the emergency ban on all political party activity and freedom of association, as well as press restrictions, and repeal Section 16(2) of the EPR granting immunity from prosecution to the Joint Forces;
(b) continue good faith efforts to adhere to the election roadmap for parliamentary elections by the end of 2008 at the latest, by setting a specific election date and keeping in mind Islamic holidays to ensure full participation;
(c) begin discussions immediately with the main political parties on core political issues not addressed in talks between those parties and the Election Commission;
(d) refrain from using coercive measures to induce and expedite political party reforms and allow sufficient time for party leaders to build support for internal reforms at all levels; and
(e) desist from anti-corruption arrests without warrants or sufficient evidence.

3. Disavow the “minus two” policy as part of the political reform process, and in regard to the trials of Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia:
(a) refrain from interfering and allow them to be held in open court;
(b) conduct them before the general election;
(c) ensure they are speedy and verdicts are delivered in time for the accused to stand for late 2008 parliamentary election if found innocent; and
(d) respect the High Court or High Court of Appeal’s verdicts.

4. Identify and encourage non-partisan national observers to monitor all elections outlined in the roadmap and invite international election observation missions to monitor elections, in consultation with the parties.

To the Parties:

5. Demonstrate a willingness to reciprocate goodwill gestures by the CTG (such as removal of the ban on party activity) by promoting internal party democracy, rejecting those convicted in corruption cases as candidates and forging consensus on an election code of conduct.

6. Promote internal party democracy by:
(a) holding regular elections for all leadership posts at all party levels;
(b) rewarding committed and effective party workers with greater opportunities to rise through the ranks, including running for office, gaining access to funds and other resources for their candidacies and winning promotions to important committees;
(c) selecting candidates to stand for elections who enjoy the confidence of their local party workers; and
(d) determining a quota, in consultation with the Election Commission, for ensuring women’s representation at all levels.

7. Do not boycott the elections, and if they are deemed free and fair by credible observers, accept the results.

To Both the CTG and the Parties:

8. Seek to ensure a smooth transition to democracy and a credible parliamentary election by December 2008 by entering into a dialogue, with a clearly defined agenda from the start, that aims broadly to:

(a) achieve a common minimum commitment on sustaining institutional reforms such as the independence of the judiciary, maintaining a non-partisan public service commission and refraining from political interference in police and army promotions and assignments;

(b) agree on how to ratify actions of the CTG, whether by approving ordinances (which might mean amending current ordinances to make them more acceptable), by a constitutional amendment or by other means;

(c) ensure a smooth transfer of power after elections, with safeguards against retaliatory prosecutions, demotions or transfers of CTG officials and military officers for administering routine ministerial, government and security functions and formulating and implementing institutional reforms such as the Anti-Corruption Commission, Public Service Commission, judicial and other reforms necessary for strengthening democratic functioning, but without foregoing the state’s responsibility under domestic and international law to investigate and prosecute civilian and military officials who have ordered, condoned or directly participated in human rights abuses to enforce the state of emergency;

(d) consider mechanisms for institutionalising pluralism and empowering opposition voices in parliament such as creating a bicameral legislature; repealing Article 70 of the constitution, which imposes rigid party discipline in the parliament; and ensuring meaningful bipartisan participation in parliamentary committees and working groups; and

(e) intensify efforts by the next government to: reduce space for radicalism, cooperate in dismantling terrorist groups and tackle any linkages between violent extremists and state institutions, political parties and politicians, and members of the business community, as well as between violent extremists and organised crime or other sources of domestic and international funding.

9. Include in any agreement a common reiteration of commitment to all fundamental rights, including concrete promises for action in areas such as extrajudicial killings, torture and illegal detention, and protection of minority rights, women’s rights and refugee rights.

10. Hold, upon conclusion of the talks, several roundtable discussions with a wide range of civil society organisations in the six division capitals so as to forge a broader national charter for post-election governance and respect for human rights.