Wed 21 Nov 2007
As the Bangladeshi government appeals for more international aid to help the victims of Cyclone Sidr, The BBC’s Alastair Lawson looks at how the country prepared for and is dealing with the aftermath of the devastating storm.
What were the preparations for the Bangladesh cyclone?
The government’s actions before the cyclone have not been criticised. In fact, they have received near universal praise.
People are homeless and many have not eaten for days
It is their actions after the storm struck that have been called into question, in particular their failure to deliver aid quickly.
At least three days before the storm struck, around 10m people were warned through newspaper adverts, megaphone announcements from mosques and on the internet - though given the number of people in this area who are illiterate, this last strategy may not have been so effective.
In addition, successive Bangladeshi governments have embarked on a comprehensive cyclone shelter construction programme.
There are now about 550 shelters on the southern coast and thousands of lives were saved because of them.
Some people argue that a key reason why the number of people killed in the cyclone was not higher was because it struck when the tide in the Bay of Bengal was low. Had it been higher, the tidal surge which hit the coast would have caused even more devastation.
If it is agreed that the cyclone warning system was a success, what, if anything, went wrong after the cyclone struck?
This is a contentious area. On the face of it, Bangladesh should be in a good position to deal with natural disasters. It has been hit by floods and cyclones on a regular basis since the country came into existence in 1971.
All the main UN agencies have offices in Dhaka, as do most of the world’s aid agencies. The country is small and it is relatively easy to travel around.
The government argues - with some justification - that it is nevertheless a huge logistical operation to get aid to affected communities, especially in the remote Sunderbans mangrove forest in the south west.
The international aid community also argues that before delivering food and other vital supplies, it is necessary to determine what exactly peoples’ needs are.
This also is no doubt true, but the fact remains that right now there are thousands of people in Bangladesh who do not have shelter, food and water - nearly a week after the storm.
Where has the relief effort gone wrong?
It might be that it has not gone wrong, and that the number of people who die after the cyclone will be relatively small. But the evidence on the ground does not support that.
Many paddy fields have been destroyed and there are a number of people who have not eaten since Thursday. In addition, there is the fear of water-borne diseases.
The principal criticism of the government and aid agencies is that they have not figured out a co-ordinated approach towards delivering relief to the worst affected areas.
Critics argue that it is all very well for western countries and the UN to pledge millions of dollars towards alleviating the suffering if there is no sign of that money taking effect on the ground.
What has been the damage to agriculture and the general economy?
The damage to agriculture will be considerable.
On the positive side, there is some evidence that farmers have saved some of their cyclone-damaged crops. It will not take them that long to re-plant destroyed paddy fields.
On the negative side, many subsistence farmers have been left with nothing and the future for them looks bleak.
The main criticism of the military-backed caretaker government before this storm struck was that it had failed to control the spiralling prices of essential goods. Those prices could now escalate - especially in the south.
The Bangladeshi economy has grown consistently over the last decade, like many other South Asian countries. But also like them, the disparities between rich and poor over that time period have become more pronounced.
Given that Bangladesh is low-lying and prone to flooding, does the country need more ambitious flood protection plans?
Bangladesh has floods every year. Even if it had the finances, it would be unable to stop them because they can occur almost everywhere except the hilly south-east.
You could have the most expensive flood protection system in the world here and it would be unlikely in the overall scheme of things to make much difference.
Some argue that the best defence against floods, cyclones and other natural disasters is education: so that the poor farmer is able to make an informed decision about the risks he is taking by refusing to abandon his livestock and go into a cyclone shelter
As things stand, how big a threat is posed by global warming and rising sea levels?
There is an interesting debate as to whether this cyclone is in any way linked to global warning.
On the face of it, it has nothing whatsoever to do with greenhouse gasses - cyclones have after all been hitting the Bay of Bengal since time immemorial.
But some climatologists have suggested that this cyclone was made worse because of the rise in sea temperatures in the Bay of Bengal.
That has still to be proven, but the full horror of the storm is likely to make the debate all the more intense.
From BBC Online
November 21st, 2007 at 10:46 am
One question come to my mind, almost on a daily basis.
Five days after the cyclone, people are still without food and shelter. I am not talking about those deadbodies floating around.
If a camera crew can reach those places and send the footage back to Dhaka by 6 PM, why government agencies can’t reach those people with food?
Why an old lady wails in front of camera that she did not eat in 3 days? Why villages line up in front of camera and say that there is not edible rice in the whole town?
If TV people can go, why not the government? Or these are all actors and actresses acting in front of camera?
All what Fakhruddin Ahmed said is that he gracefully cancelled his Uganda trip. Is that all?
November 21st, 2007 at 12:49 pm
Relief camps overrun in Bangladesh. ( source AP)
–Once again the CTG is failing to handle the situation and continuing with the blame game.
November 21st, 2007 at 1:37 pm
Why shun the political parties when the call of the hour is national unity and united effort on all fronts? They are asking all fund to go through govt channels in other words say no to the NGOs. Why? Why trying to monopolize the efforts when the clearly do not have the capability to manage it by themselves? Is it arrongance or sheer foolhardiness?
November 21st, 2007 at 3:05 pm
Rumi (#1):
Not trying to defend the CTG OR the military. But it is considerably more difficult, in logistical terms, to get supplies to these places than it is to get a cameraman. Some points to consider:
1. A BBC team (cameraman, reporter, producer, plus probably a translator and associated equipment) should be roughly 500-600 kg, 1,000 kg max. They can easily be piled into one of he BAF Helicopters (most likely to be the Mil Mi-8 or Chinese variants). It can carry about 25 people.
2. The same helicopter will carry about 3,000 kg of cargo. Assuming about 1 kg of supplies/person, that’s 3,000 people in 1 trip.
3. The Mi-8 has about 450 km range, roughly 2.5 hours of flight time. It has to be able to find that many people, drop the load, come back, refuel and reload, fly out. That’s roughly 3,000 people supplied in roughly 4-5 hours.
4. These are daytime only missions, so each helicopter has a maximum 2 missions (6,000 people) per day. 3 if they are really, really pushing it.
5. All this assumes they can find that many people in one place. What often happens is that, running low on fuel, they’ll drop the full load when they see “enough” people (Yes, you’ve seen that happen on TV).
That’s just with helicopters for immediate supply (don’t forget, they also need about 1,200 kg of fuel/mission).
The logistics chain gets even more nightmarish when you get multimodal (eg. train to rail-head, truck for the rest, boat for the rest. Fuel for each mode). And I am assuming in all this that the military has (how shall I put it?) “extracted finger” and got the ops plan spot on. Not always a foregone conclusion at the best of times, with the best military services.
As I said at first, I am no fan of the military. But give them a break. It’s not as easy as it sounds.
November 21st, 2007 at 3:49 pm
I have heard from various authorities of the current government in the last few days saying things like - the election timeline will not be affected by the flood, election is on course, voter list preparation continues…
I don’t recall hearing many comments like - every resouce in our posession is there for the victims and the survivors, we are deploying all resources to get the relif out to the needy, our number one priority at this time of crisis is to reach out to those victims and survivors and get them back on track…
November 21st, 2007 at 5:48 pm
#4
I understand. There are limitations and its easier said than done.
Still what I don’t understand is government’s reelative callous attitude to the whole mayhem.
Two C130s from US army is in Bangladesh since Sunday. They are yet to be used.
Governments flip flop is also another thing to watch. One day they say we are not asking for any foreign aid. Next day they they change their mind but add that all donation must come via government channel.
So if we are not allowing non government help, how all the limitation you mention stay valid? If we have limitation, lets try to overcome those with external help.
November 22nd, 2007 at 5:27 am
Rumi is out with the anti-ctg dagger!! . Well done.
Now to Asif’s analysis.
Main reason we always see hungry people pleading in front of cameras and newspapers is mainly due to logistics.
If you have toured Bangladeshi villages, you can appreciate the fact that many of these villages don’t even have proper roads which can accomodate donkey carts. Some poor villages don’t even have dirt roads and can only be reached by boats or helicopters. Bangladesh government does not have any such transport which are dedicated to dealing with disasters.
Maybe in the past instead of purchasing Mig 29’s and Naval frigates we should have bought transport helicopters which can be used for relief effort.
Giving relief in Bangladesh is also a challenging task. Those with experience of distributing Qurbani meat or Jakat items will know what I mean. Bengalis have a tendency to grab whatever they can get and than stand in line again for some more. Older men and women are particularly at risk of not getting releif as they don’t have the strength to fight crowds for whatever supplies are distributed.
I for one am for action at the grassroots level. Instead of giving out tents and lungis, the government should concentrate on distributing basic meals cooked onsite and give out dry food items.
After every flood and cyclone that hits Bangladesh we hear the same broken record about people not getting adequate relief. In my opinion until we are able to setup sound logistical infrastructure like roads, vehicles, air and river transport, we will repeating the same complaints after the next disaster.
November 22nd, 2007 at 6:35 am
Just an FYI, when hurricane Katrina struck, it took FEMA 5 days to get water to people in the superdome in New Orleans.
November 22nd, 2007 at 9:31 am
Yes Shahed and Captain Joynal.
Yes US government failed miserably in early management of Katrina. But media, politicians, observers, commentators criticized the failure viciously.
One must point out the lapses. Shahed, if you keep on doing yes general, yes general, believe me, no one will be benefited.
November 22nd, 2007 at 1:58 pm
Just for the record: Shahed Aziz and Shahed are two different people
November 22nd, 2007 at 7:41 pm
Rumi,
We always need to point out lapses. And we need to do it in a constructive way keeping in touch with reality. Government’s failure is there and that needs to be pointed out. And they also should be credited for pre-sidr evacuation. But there are few people (not you, I have been reading your blogs for a long time to know better) who would bash the govt. for whatever reasons and confuse other bloggers.
It is possible that you got me mixed up with some other ‘Shahed’ since I haven’t blogged at this site in probably more than five months. For those people who know me a little will tell you that I am never a ‘yes, general’ man…in fact, never a ‘yes, man’ at all. I believe in constructive criticism of everything..that is the only way we can grow.