Fri 27 Apr 2007
Amazing things are happening. Compared to even one week ago, the changes are quite dramatic.
1. Politicians are talking quite loudly. Neither the ban on indoor politics has been removed nor has SOE been lifted. Surprisingly, these same politicians were stone quite even when there was a dire need for them to speak out. At that time they cited the ban on indoor politics as reason of their silence.
2. Media has opened up. There was no one to participate in Tritiyo Matra last week. Tritiyo matra started taking single interview of unknown persons. At one point they had to do a program with Singer Shuvro Dev and ex cricketer Raqibul Hassan debating. Suddenly politicians are returning and talking evil of current government. No more SMS about Sheikh Hasina statements. Hasina-Khaleda’s pictures have re-occupied the leading first page spot where CinC’s picture has moved downwards.
3. Judiciary has started flexing muscles. Bails are being issued, government actions are being questioned.
4. Suddenly politicians again started proving their allegiance to the two old leaders. This is a u-turn from their stand of last week.
5. Daily JaiJaidin has reverted it’s BNP alliance after several weeks of marriage with the CTG.
6. Barrister Moinul Hossain is trying to save his future back by relegating the blame of the attempted exile of Hasina-khaleda on the leaders of their parties. And general Matin has suddenly stopped talking.
6. And more importantly and rather appropriately (Compared to previous engagements), Army Chief shared his views with two journalists in a social gathering. He affirmed that military has no intention to take over the governance.
Why?
Like 1/11, I believe history just gave birth to another milestone date, i.e 4/25, April 25th. Govt issues press note back tracking on their exile khaleda-Hasina plan.
With this back track, a dry run completes its mission, all concerned power brokers came to the understanding that a authoritarian or military government is no longer an option for Bangladesh. The reasons may ne mutipronged.
1. As a result of globalization, exile is no longer an effective tool.
2. The media as well as the clout of certain countries on Bangladesh politics has become way too powerful.
3. The appetite for state power is (with possible one or two exceptions) not too intense in the armed forces. Starting from the army chief, the whole of military leadership is now Bangladesh trained. Unlike Pakistani culture, this Bangladesh generation of generals has gone through rigorous training in a curriculum that is very carefully designed to infuse the allegiance to civilian state leadership. And increasing public contact of armed forces via RAB has helped the armed forces officials understand the depth of public dislike of a total military takeover.
Like 1/11, 4/25 has also significant implication on the future of nation’s democracy.
An example has just been created that will dissuade future efforts to derail a democratic process.
However on the other hand, 4/25 may significantly weaken the current CTG. A weakened CTG means a less radical reform in basic issues in different areas like EC, ACC etc. Similarly ongoing prosecution of the corrupts may take a backseat.
April 27th, 2007 at 11:03 pm
Well said Rumi!
And there is definitely some contribution of Sk. Hasina and the online blogging community.
Within few days CTG will have to be more flexible. Look at the last speech from Sk. Hasina:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/1f1280ec-f4e9-11db-b748-000b5df10621.html
April 27th, 2007 at 11:10 pm
All good points, Rumi bhai… only time will tell if your predictions ring true. But they are good ones, as things stand right now…
April 27th, 2007 at 11:48 pm
I mostly agree with Rumi that its purely based on loss and gain calculation, the Army can’t takeover. Here are some additional reasons why I am thinking so.
1. Amy was with democratic forces for the last 16 years; went against Ershad in 1990, sided with Biswas in 96; helped hold free and fair election under the last 3 CTGs
2. They could take power at the onset of the CA formation on 28th October last. Instead apparently they moved along with the civil society on January 11 –not alone; asked first Yunus to be CA is an indication that they didn’t want to keep real power to themselves by installing a stooge as the CA.
3. Army more professional now; they clean mess outside their country, now is the time to clean their own house
4. Not much division like 82 (No pro-Mukti vs stranded in Pakistan). Army is financially better off (UN duty is a big factor)
5. The effect of Ershad removal is still in their mind and majority of the current officers were somehow a part of anti-Ershad movement.
6. Most probably among the current Generals, don’t have a Bis-shaw Bayhya like Ershad (Kamrul Hassan)
7. International pressure UN, US, EU; moderate Muslim country; anti-terror issue
8. India is good neighbor now than in 82: its pure business;
9. Free media; Matiur Rahman and Mahfuz Anam dared to say NO to any censorship on media after the promulgation of Emergency on 1/11; they also spoke again against the public speech by Gen Moin; apparently he went low profile after that.
10. Apparently media, civil society and military are working together now and Military seems to listening to the advice from other groups.
11. Nobel Prize for Yunus is a factor (influence on us government/personalities and other world bodies)
12. Growing private economy; who is nation’s father/who declared independent is less important than getting job and making money
13. Overall economic condition of Bangladesh (a sizable middle class)
14. People have seen whatever way one comes to power, all become dictator; that must change; balance of power at the top level of government and political parties are the demand of the day.
15. Internets, sizeable number of Bangladeshi expatriates; remittance, etc are a factor.
16. If army takeover, they also will have to go through the path of Zia and Ershad (form political parties, etc.) which is almost impossible now as we have now very strong two parties unlike 82.
Bottom line, “”delivering good”" is the only way for this army-back interim government or the army to survive not the other way round.
Thanks
April 28th, 2007 at 12:04 am
Rumi Bhai,
Nice analysis. But I don’t know if your last paragraph will necessarily be true. There was a genuine sigh of relief on 1/12 in the streets of Dhaka, and probably elsewhere as well. The regime and its military backers have invested a lot in the ‘reforms’, and they’ll have to deliver something for two reasons. First, they have created enemies out of some very powerful people - politicians and businessmen. These people will want to extract revenge. So the regime needs an exit strategy that gives them indemnity. This can now only happen through a ‘deal’ with one or both parties. And secondly, for this ‘deal’, the regime will need leverage of some sorts. The best way to ensure that leverage is to produce some genuine reform.
And you know what, genuine reforms that are instituted with full collaboration of the politicians will have a much better chance of succeeding that reforms by fiats and ordinances.
April 28th, 2007 at 1:20 am
There are currently two parallel power bases in Bangladesh, CTG is the public face and then there is the army in the background.
There may be a lack of communication and co-ordination between these two groups. The army beleives in brut force, which they clearly demonstrated during operation clean heart and the many crossfire killings. They are not used to being diplomatic, at least not with the civilian population which includes the political parties.
On the other hand many of the CTG advisers have operated in the civilian sector and are aware of the pitfalls of forcing an agenda through without popular support and public debate.
There is probably a group of army men just like the 10 advisers, who hold various portfolis and are in charge of key policty decisions which are being made. It is very possible the CTG is not being briefed about many of the policies being formulated in the cantonment. This was quite apparent from Matin and Mainul’s public statements regarding KZ and SH’s exile and what was actually happening.
Now, the exile debacle may have put the army advisers in an awkward position and the public CTG may now have the upper hand. Which as Rumi points out, may be the reason we are seeing more of a pragmatic approach in dealing with the media and politicians.
April 28th, 2007 at 1:47 am
The media is reporting that Hasina will delay her return to Bangladesh - is it because of her schedule in London or perhaps the uncertainity of what will happen if she returns to Dhaka immediately?
The CTG did not completely let her off the hook yet. On the contrary, they are scrutinizing her Agrani bank personal accounts which apparently have a balance of TK. 3 crore.
Hasina claims this money is donated by people around the world to ‘Bangabandhu memorial fund’.
While that maybe true, it would have been proper to put it in a different type of account instead of a personal account.
So I believe Hasina has a lot of answering to do in regards to the source of this money. Potentially more trouble for her. On top of that, the CTG can conveniently reissue the arrest warrant against her once she is back in Bangladesh.
The other lady - Khaleda, apparently has 48 accounts.
I dont know why would anyone need that many accounts for personal finances but it seems while Khaleda may not be going for a permanent exile to Saudi, she may willingly prolong her visit there to avoid harassment at home. This could be very will be her chance to smuggle out Arafat Rahman to safety in Saudi Arabaia.
So while politicans may be rather vocal lately, the Plan A fiasco has not necessarily weakened the CTG that much.
They can still go after the two ladies within the legal framework.
April 28th, 2007 at 2:40 am
I thik Rumi Bhai is correct. But Have we ever thought who this M&M duo is. Were they not showing too much interest?
Aamdear shomoy Informed Dr Fakruddin Even did not know the Bann of Hasina, same thing
is apllicable for Iftekaruddin.
My point is that If reform finds its right track during this period who was this master mind to take such immaturede decisions?
Basically Sheikh Hasina is the one who not only took the bold step but also help BNP
to re establish.
Well played Master Mind.One thing you notice Rumi Bhai we never see any positing in last some days in DP. Sp Many New names
were there. They used to attack we NRB as NON PATRIOT.
April 28th, 2007 at 2:47 am
Just Notice Moinul’s comments-
http://www.prothom-alo.org/index.news.details.php?nid=NjA4Mw==&PHPSESSID=7cfed45cf105700752c2ac520ee0c8a4
Does he know what he is speaking about? Where is this Moinul Hossain of yesterday
who declared third world war against politicians. This is the black side of Bangladesh Politics&intellects.
These Type of people will be there in every season . They are the responsible to polute the politics.
It was shame to see Lots of we people were blming democretic system.
April 28th, 2007 at 4:44 pm
The exile or minus-2 menu was prepard in the kitchen of Moinul-Motin-Moin-Masud, but it’s chefs were Awami, BNP, Shushil backers and perhaps, Dr. Kamal was the Head-Cook. The later on his 70th Birth annivarsary talked to media and there he tacitly supported the exile idea and didn’t find any gross legal problem with exile if it’s good for reforms, anti-corruption drive or greater good of the country. It’s shame on the great rule-of-low advocate, DKH.
It will be very hard to correct the politics of Bangladesh as almost all political leaders, shushil representatives, city elites and pundits are crooked and have the strong penchant for power.
Nothing is adequately predictable. Politics, especially in Bangladesh, doesn’t follow the simplication rules of maths or rules of politics.
Whatever ever happened after historic 10/28/2006 up and until now, no body could have any better prediction of that. The events unfolded in a way that it outsmarted political astrologer like Nizam Qumran chowdhury.
So, what is stored in for us in future, good or bad still very unpredictable.
Thanks.
April 28th, 2007 at 7:27 pm
Here is Sheikh Hasina’s Interview with robert Frost in Al-zajira.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=SOs-aee9ptI
April 28th, 2007 at 7:44 pm
”’The exile or minus-2 menu was prepard in the kitchen of Moinul-Motin-Moin-Masud, but it’s chefs were Awami, BNP, Shushil backers and perhaps, Dr. Kamal was the Head-Cook”’
Good. But who was the kitche potter?
You know better!
April 29th, 2007 at 1:15 am
Hi folks
Can you see the light at the end of the tunnel..honestly I don’t see any light…………, at least not in short term. The hope and expectation which was implanted and nurtured by this government has already started to diminish. Black money is in full action, the media and so-called intellectuals who are the direct products of Tareeq-Mamun-Nasim network, slowly but gradually getting back on their old feet. With arrival of Hasina along with lifted ban on indoor politics, we’ll see more and more reversal of actions taken by this government for last few months. Are they afraid of those two ladies? May be or may be not, but one thing for sure, if election is on the horizon everyone should think about saving their skin. Just imagine, BNP, despite of everything, becomes victorious in the election (nothing is impossible), what will be the scale of retaliation from Tareeq-Mamun gong? An extremely powerful lobby in the US, financed and entertained by BNP-AL money, is in direct action against this government. At one end Mr Joy with his long hand of political connection along with vicious group known as Hindu-Boddya-Khristian Okkya Porishod, and on the other end BNP’s millions are forming a united front to undermine the work of the present gov. I don’t think this government is capable of handling such multi-front attacks. Just look at this forum, few people are relentlessly attacking the CG and asking for restoration of so-called democracy; meaning is simple, back to pavilion with two ladies! Other group is bringing forward the glory of AL, crying for Jatir Pita and establishing Sheikh Hasina as one and only legitimate contender to the thorn and describing our failure as the result of not recognizing Sheikh Mujib as father of the nation! If educated and hardworking part of our society sees our problems in the eyes of a puppet…sorry to say, we’re destined for failure. Within a year everything will be back on track, Tareeq-Mamun syndicate will recover their lost fortune, one of the two Beagums will be in power, other will be the mother of Hartals…the mechanism of corruption will be in full swing with new momentum. This is who we are!
April 29th, 2007 at 2:31 am
BD watchers,
Thanks for pointing out the various lobbying efforts that are in play in DC.
AL and BNP are working in-sync in 17 years again. Most people would like to tout “democracy” but the sorry state of “democracy” in Bangladesh is anything but a democracy. Its seems there is a united lobbying to divert attention to CTG’s mistakes, unjustness and the general public is eating it up; the educated class included. The two clowns are not helping much either by speaking freely with the media; they are sabotaging the gov’t. They should be barred from speaking to the media. Damages have been done to the credibility of the gov’t but if they do not go through with the difficult choices that lie ahead they would have achieved nothing. The task of the CTG is to hold fair election but what’s the point of a fair election if it brings the same old thieves to power? A platform to bring in honest/different leadership is a must. Let’s not kid ourselves that SH or KZ and crew will somehow wake up tomorrow and realize all their mistakes and repent for their mistakes, rule honestly for the good of the people. They care for nothing but their self-fulfilling agenda. Whether one sending ill gotten money to family overseas or the other run a family syndicate of corruption.
This could have been (and maybe there is still hope) the turning point in Bangladesh history but people seems eager to get into back to how things were. Only if we had a bit of patience, we gave the thieves 20 years but are so unwillingness to take a break from the so-called “democracy” for only 2 years.
April 29th, 2007 at 4:03 am
So Called BD watcher Just give me the full
implementation lists of CG or IG.
what is the responsibility of Cg?
1) To make free and fair election
Maximum level
2) Anti Corruption Drive.
But who gave them right to speak about party
internal issues.Very Next day they will start to speak on every thing.
You have democrecy in this Blog. So you can right ABCD.
I think before blaming democrecy firt find
you yourself is capable enough or not to get the taste of it.
what do you want to say about this
“Mr Joy with his long hand of political connection along with vicious group known as Hindu-Boddya-Khristian Okkya Porishod.”
Show the proof before making such fatal comment.
April 29th, 2007 at 4:09 pm
Folks,
I had a strong support for one of the two ever feuding parties over the other. I know both are bad. Both are bad because we are bad. We vote for them. We become a party of their corruption. We take part in thier destructive so called legitimate democratic movement, hartal, garao/aborhod, bangchur, Jalao-porao, killing campaign of the opposition camps by logi-boita-lathi or guns. We help them making mess of business, economy and communication. We destroy lives and propery. We kill our brothers as the leaders tell us, “they are your enemies”. And even we don’t hesitate to get ourselves killed.
So only the politicians are not blameworthy, we the stupid people who always claimed to be politically conscious are equally responsible of our self-demolition. We vote for them, rig vote for them, we donate and extort money for them, we fuel their fund.
We fail to condemn when our leader isnstruct us if one of us is killed, Kill 10 of them. We fail to condemn when our leader says, Police families and their wives, children have no right to live as police have killed our worker.
We are politically addicted/drunk. Alcholic abusers or drug addicted people may brag they know the different brand names of alchohol or drugs they drink or use. But they really don’t know how do they work and how they kill them. Like-wise we are proud our people are politically conscious but in fact we are polictically addicted population.
We don’t know what politics and democracy are and how they can work for us. WE NEED TO WAKE UP.
Every body must need to study and learn politics so that we can be true political or democratic activist, not the addict.
We need to know about politics as we know A,B,C,D… the alphabet, otherwise, we will be the just prey of crooked corrupt self-seeking politics. One international reknown socialistic politcian once said, ” Politics is too important in life to leave only with politician.”
As I said before I had a strong support for one party. But as I see the country’s interest over party interest I’m now in favor of banning BNP, AWL and Jamat for a fresh start, hopefully a better and brighter polity for the country that suffered too long under the yokes of this trio cataclasmic politics.
Thanks.
April 29th, 2007 at 6:23 pm
Bitter Boy Nice posting and You present your self in Different way. and Your this column
Can be eye opener for every one. But By banning
Political parties solution will not come.
Because If political people are not there,
Mainul&Matin type Duo is there. you need to have three things only
Independent Judiciary, EC and Anti Corruption.
April 29th, 2007 at 7:53 pm
The best posting I have ever read in the DP thread. Tnx bitterboy.
”I know both are bad. Both are bad because we are bad.”
I posted a comment like this earlier. I said ” we are hipnotized by the BD politics”
I am preparing a thread using your posting in my own blog site http://www.sushantaa.blogspot.com
April 29th, 2007 at 10:29 pm
Tonay,
I advocate for banning these 3 so much loved and so much cursed parties BNP, AWL, and Jamat but not one party system or military dictatorship or family rule or oligarchy in the name of democracy. I’m in favor multiparty liberal democracy genetically modified. I just don’t see our political body will be composed of Sheik and Zia’s genes. I want incorporation of popular genes in our political parties or system. After the trio-parties along with their symbols are guilotened for their misrules, those who are leaders, workers and supporters of these 3 parties can form new party or parties.
If it’s done we can see a marvelous mix in new parties, maybe the one AWL leader will be the president, the BNP leader the secretary general and Jamat man as the organizing secretary.
And that’s the only way to depolarize our unthinkably polarized politics and only way t0 unite our hearts and hands to work for the country for which lakhs of people got martyrs, its leaders Sheik, Taj, Zia Bhashani, Shere-Bangla, Osmany all had the time, toil and blood.
I’m so sad that we have no leader like Mandela who despite in jail for twenty-seven years, after his epic victory forgave his arch enemies, the white and he even reconciled to share power with them just for the shake of national interest. Unfortunately, we lack in vision and the visionary leaders.
If these 3 parties are there, even if Khaleda, Hasina and Nizami are stripped off their leaderships, no reforms and no new leadership idea, for sure, will work. All good will of CTG and horizon-extending hope, will be mashed in our face. We will see the status quo, old wine in the new bottle, corruption, anarchy, political instability, 3 feet jump up of economic indices in a year and 2 and 2/3 feet dragging down in the next year. And if the CTG fails to bring forth new dynamicity or new chemistry in our politics it will be a clossal disservice to the nation.
If there is political good sense and stablity in the country at least, we like Tonay and me stop gluing with computers and fighting and can use our time more productive way.
I do passonately hoping for alternative parties with new spirit new, new vision, new leaders with new committment of looking forward to, burrying patricidal poltical past.
Thanks.
April 30th, 2007 at 12:35 am
No doubt, the CG has suffered some setback recently but the CG and army must go forward with more determination to compell AL and BNP to change the Hasina/Khaleda (including their extended family) centric leadership.
Both parties are just wasting time in bringing about must needed change within the parties by saying they are waiting for the ban on (Ghoroa) politics to be lifted, which is unfortunate. At least one of the begum did a lot of shouting when she was not allowed to return to the country, surely she can express some views on what sort of changes she personaly things is needed within AL. But as we know this is too much to expect from people like Hasina and Khaleda. KZ and SH just want any type of election so one of them can come back to power, they would rather have the known enemy than the CG+Army running the show.
Tarique Zia and Giasuddin Al Mamun are products of Khaleda Zia’s leadership. When she is unable to clean up her own house how can she rid the party of other corrupt persons. She is not qualified to lead the drive againts corruption within BNP.
It is not in the best interest of the country for the CG and army to fail in bringing about reforms within AL and BNP.
Exiled or not it is time for Khaleda and Hasina to allow AL/BNP to be led by someone other than themselves and their family members. The CG and army must take action to curb Hasina and Khaleda’s influence within the parties and possibly compell them to resign before the next eletion. No one can argue that it is in the best interest of the country for them to do so.
April 30th, 2007 at 10:09 pm
KZ has decided to bring some changes in her party. That’s good news.
But wait, it turns out that she has elevated her brother to the post of VP. By all accounts, he is a very corrupt person. It does not beehove us well when after all this talk about promoting internal democracy, we are fed with more of the same.
The CTG should show some guts, go for a brand of democracy that suits our needs, not pay undue heed to the boro and chotto bhais and weed out corruption.
The last thing we need is old wine in new bottles. The common masses are smart enough to appreciate change when they see it.This is one golden opportunity for us to clean up our stables and bring new ideas and faces. As long as KZ and SH are allowed to stay at the helm, major changes cannot take place.
May 1st, 2007 at 6:02 am
No wonder even the veteran party members inside AL and BNP are beginning to wonder, are these political parties or Mom & Pop family-run businesses like Tata Corp or Ispahani Group? where the VP’s are all family members,
Am sure if the veterans had their own way, they would leave the AL-BNP family-business and start their own party - like NANA (Narayanganj assoc fo North America) or BABA (Bay Area Bangladeshi Assoc), or CHACHA (Chottogram Assoc of China)! ),