Whoever was behind the thinking of forcing out the two leaders miscalculated on 1 key point. They figured that the end justifies the means. In the process, they thought they could manipulate every single institution that came its way. Brute force works in pulling down illegal building and flooring out slums where there is no organized protest. But it doesn’t work in killing democratice institutes in democracy. The checks and balances are there for a reason. Here is a good example of executive activism stopped by the judiciary. The handling of the whole situtation by the CTG was a copy book case of how not to handle cases like this. The whole move is so incredibly short sighted that you have to wonder who is advising the New Order in matters like this.

If I have to pick a winner in this saga, it is definitely the two justices who must have stood up under intense pressure to give the ruling against the government against the Khaleda confinement. It is even more pleasing to hear that these justices were actually appointed by Awami League and hence it wasn’t a case of old loyality to Khaleda. Partisanship, for a change, took a back seat this time.

They have been unable to put Khaleda away and Hasina’s arrest warrant has been withdrawn and its only a matter of time before she is back. But the damage that has been done to this government is almost irreversible. The sooner they reverse this decision, the better chance they have in controlling the damage. It has now become evident that even if the two leaders are away, it will be for a temporary period and their influence over the party will not wane at all. You will only have to look at Pakistan’s PPP and Muslim League where Benajir Bhutto and Nawaj Sharif are still running the show in both the parties from exile. So what is the outcome of the whole drama that unfolded last few days? Among others, the following ones are the ones that are obvious.

  • The two leaders, whose popularity was perhaps on an all time low before this incident, have become heroes for their non-compromising stand.
  • The credibility of the interim government is shattered.
  • They have completely now lost the moral ground on key issues like independence of judiciary and fundamental human rights and press freedom.
  • The popularity of the CTG has taken a dive.
  • The genuine cases against the corrupt leaders will now be seen as fake.

Its a big shame. Because, with a huge popular backing, this government really had a chance to bring in genuine reforms. Its still early to say what will happen eventually. Its slowly becoming clear that they will be unable to keep Khaleda and Hasina away by brute force for long (without resorting to outright martial law) and anyone will be able to tell you that in Bangladesh today there is no justifiable reason to declare martial law.

After a long time, AL got its act together. It did a very credible job in launching worldwide media initiative in protesting this forcible exile. The work of a relatively young brigade which handled the media matter is ample enough reason for the party to reform and shed the old, expired leaders to give the new blood a chance.

A number of events may have had a factor to put the minus 2 plan in trouble. But the lobbying and the intense international media focus put the US and UK government in a very uncomfortable position of defending the extra-legal manner of the whole process. As they are backing this government heavily, they were seen as backing a very undemocratic process. As a result, the Bangladeshi foreign adviser in London got a lambusting when he came to House of Lords. More significant, may be, however, was US State Department’s South Asia related under secretary Nick Burn’s statement saying that the action of the caretaker government in delaying the election process was unacceptable. He expressed his profound disappointment that the caretaker government is yet to take any meaningful action towards the election. He deemed the 1 year timeline for election too long as well.

Now where do we go from here?

From the very beginning we stressed the importance of clear and transparent due process for the trial and conviction of the allegedly corrupt individuals. Its in absolutely the best interest of the country and its future growth and to make sure that the guilty are put away for their crimes without raising the quesiton about legitamacy of their trial process. However, for some unknown reason, gradually as days went by not only the actions of the government became more non-transparent, thanks to the two outspoken advisers Moinul and Matin, the M&Ms, the lack of coordination between what they were doing and what they were saying became more and more aparent.

Now the only way to control the damage that has been done is to stop this farce of minus 2 plan and go back to the original work of reforming the institutes and have strong electoral laws that automatically forces democracy inside the party. In this vein, I don’t think the ensuring a term limit for a prime minister is not a bad idea at all. But that’s a different discussion alltogether. More importantly they need to get back into the business of having the election as soon as possible.

You can fool some people some time,
But you can’t fool all the people,all of the time!

If this doesn’t alert the people that Musharraf solution will not work in Bangladesh, I don’t know what will. Perhaps this is the best positive out of the whole sordid saga.