(this was written a thursday — a day before the militants’ execution took place unannounced )

One of the over-simplifications the commentariat (myself included) is often guilty of is to look at all political questions in the country from an AL versus BNP point of view: political discourse in Bangladesh seems to revolve around this binary understanding of the world.
This understanding of Bangladeshi politics was never 100 per cent accurate. After all, Bangladesh is replete with those of dubious morality from all walks of life who have prospered regardless of who was in power. These self-serving chameleons, surely, are the people we really need to watch out for.

Bangladesh is filled with people with a knack for making sure they stay on the right side of whatever government is in power. In the post-liberation period this meant currying favour with the AL, in the mid to late seventies it meant throwing one’s lot in with BNP, in the eighties, Ershad. You get the idea.

In a sense, this is why, perhaps, not so much has changed down the years. Certain structures and systems have always remained in place, regardless of whether the government has been socialist or military or whatever, and it is the individuals who have been able to maneuver through these systems and manipulate them for their own benefit who have prospered at the expense of the common good.

So, the apparent impending demise of the AL and BNP should not be the cause for the popping of champagne corks quite yet, even for those who are opposed to both (or either) parties tooth and nail and wish for nothing more than their destruction.

Certainly, many of the top names have been put behind bars. Tarique is in jail — that means that the BNP is finished, right? Not so fast. Yes, many criminals from his coterie may be out of business, but there are just as many who have evaded capture (or, indeed, charges) and are busy trying to come to terms with whoever the next power brokers will be. The danger we must be alive to is that however much change there is, whatever new dispensation ultimately ends up running the country, that these kinds of opportunists will bribe and bully their way to the top again.

Let me give you an example of what I am talking about.

On January 12, two of the first people picked up by the authorities were Md. Aminul Islam and Abul Kashem Polash, president and senior official of Adab (Association of Development Agencies of Bangladesh) an umbrella organization of more than 1,000 NGOs.

They were initially arrested under the Special Powers Act, but after their detention was declared illegal by the High Court, a series of preposterous and utterly implausible cases has been filed against them, and they remain behind bars.

Adab had long been on the hit-list of the last BNP-led government, and the organization had suffered a great deal of harassment and malicious prosecution during the course of the 4-party alliance’s tenure in office

At first it was hoped that the two Adab officials were arrested based on a list prepared by the previous government and that once their case was brought to light that they would be released in short order. But now, two and half months down the line, it is clear that someone still has it in for them.

Who could this be? Is it BNP dead-enders who are trying to exact one last piece of revenge or still trying at this late date to turn things around. Actually, that would be the most benign and least worrisome explanation.

But the more alarming possibility is that the truth is more sinister even than that. Even as the BNP is imploding, we find that much of its worst priorities and agenda seem to have been picked up and implemented by some party or parties within the current power structure.

That is to say, just as there were retrograde and regressive elements in the last administration who considered Adab a threat to their well-being, there are, apparently, still those in positions of power who feel the same way.

Perhaps these are the same people in the administration who thought that it was a good idea to pick up and torture to death anti eco-park activist Choilesh Ritchil in Modhupur last week. According to eye-witness accounts, among other horrific tortures, Choilesh had been castrated, beaten black and blue, had fingernails, toenails, and teeth pulled out, and his eyes plucked out.

So, who is behind this atrocity and in what way is the agenda of such a person or people different from the agenda of torture and tyranny that marked the last five years? This is a pertinent inquiry because those responsible are, presumably, one of the parties calling the shots for the next few months if not the next few years.

One question: what would the point be of all our efforts to ensure that the Tarique Rahman raj not be established if we end up with precisely the kind of abuses that would have occurred had he come to power?

It is critical that wherever we end up, we don’t end up in the same old place. I remain cautiously optimistic about the opportunities before the nation right now, but I remain concerned that power doesn’t end up in the wrong hands, as it has a habit of doing in Bangladesh.

One absolutely crucial issue which will tell us how much things have really changed between January 11 and now is the imminent execution of the six JMB leaders currently scheduled for the middle of April.

The questions as to who have been sponsoring and sheltering the JMB remain unanswered, but the current administration is getting ready to send them to the gallows without permitting them to speak, on the absurd grounds that there is “no precedent.” It is unheard of for convicts in a case such as this to be executed without being permitted to open their mouths, thus ensuring that they take their secrets with them to the grave.

I can understand why the previous government would want to keep the lid on the JMB, but what about the current one? Who are behind this decision and what do they want to hide? If the six JMB leaders walk the gallows without being permitted to say a word, it will show that the pre-January 11 agenda is alive and well, and we should understand that our world is not quite as brave and new as we had hoped.

Zafar Sobhan is Assistant Editor, The Daily Star.