Gen Masud
Gen: Masud: Is he the ambitious one? photo: bdnews24

When 1/11 happened, there was a quite a bit of ambivilence on what really happened. A friend of mine was jumping up and down and I wrote to her that we should reserve our judgment because it just takes one ambitious General to goof things up again. After two months of State of emergency, it is now clear that army hardliners are taking over and army is no longer willing to be behind the scene. Over the last few days, there has been a few alarming developments of amassing extra constitutional power by the army.

First the reenactment of Special Powers Act, a black law that can arrest and jail people without cause; Secondly the development of this super powerful anti-corruption taskforce with sweeping power to search without warrant, arrest and prosecute undermining the power of the Anti Corruption Commission, thirdly the complete banning of political activities — all these point to a telling trend of an army take over. The task force will have committees in each of the 64 districts and will be headed by a Brigadier of the army. It is not clear who in the army is calling the shot but over the last few days the GOC of the ninth division (Savar) Major General Masududdin Chowdhury has been gradually increasing his profile. In a telling trend, there was an unusual headline in Prothom-Alo, the leading Bangla daily, (whose editor is known for championing the cause of army involvement in government) promoting the success of the ninth division of the army, headed by Gen Masud, in the recent anti-corruption drive. It is unclear why spokesperson of the division would go to press to promote the success of one single division in the army. This is in stark difference to the trend where army was unwilling to take credit for the clean up and where its chief Moin U Ahmed stressed that it was the civilians who were running the government. Gen Masududdin has also been given the charge of chief coordinator of this super powerful anti-corruption task force which makes him now one of the most powerful man in Bangladesh. Gen Masud’s role in the Jan 11th is also highlighted in this article by Dr. Abdul Momen. He says:

In this city of rumors, the story that emanates from the Dhaka cantonment goes like this. The Army Chief Lt. Gen. Moeen Ahmed of greater Noakhali, the home district of former Prime Minister Begum Zia was not still convinced to move. However, his 9th Division Commanding Officer, Major General Masud, a close relative of Major (Retd) Said Iskander, Begum Zia’s younger brother, reportedly betrayed and surrounded the Banga Bhavan and asked President Iazuddin Ahmed to resign from his CA position and declare a state of emergency. [Anti-AL general, Maj. Gen. Matin, a former DGFI Chief now an Advisor might have played a role too]. He initially refused and as usual desired to speak to Begum Zia. But he was not allowed. His Press Advisor Moklesur Rahman in the meantime alerted Major General Razzakul Haider, the Chief of the President’s Guard Regiment. When General Haider appeared, he was immediately disarmed and later retired. The NSI Chief was also retired as he made some opposing noise.

We all know what happened since then. I have no way to verify this story reported by Mr. Momen in January. But it is worth noting that General Masud’s name have come up repeatedly in the rumour mills in Dhaka.

There should not be any ifs and buts about it that the Army was right to refuse to get manipulated by a massively corrupt government in holding a sham election. They also deserve the kudos in helping to implement swiftly the anti-corruption policy of the interim government. Such clean up will help our country in the long term. However, their chances of doing good is inversely proportional to the length of time they stay out of the barrack. The longer they taste unlimited power, the more chances there are for them to get carried away. It is easy to trivialize the role of the civilians in the current government but a major part of the good will that is there for the army is because of good names of these people and also precisely because of the fact that army did not take over power directly and rather let the civilian government take the laurel of some of their good work.

What started out as a military backed civilian government is now turning out to be a government where the civilians are gradually being marginalized. The key institutions like election commission and the anti corruption commissions are all headed by former army men and they have become the defacto spokesperson for these commissions. Similarly, in the advisory council former general Matin is being the most vocal with the most important responsibilities. The trends are ominous. In a recent article in Gulf News army was quoted as saying:

“We are a unique army, the Bangladesh generals said to New Delhi again and again, we are not like Myanmar or Thailand. We are here to stay. We are not here to ape the politicians. We will clean up the system, however long it takes.”

However, army will be making a huge mistake if they think that their honeymoon with the public will last forever. The public in Bangladesh is not like Burma or Thailand either. Rather if indications are right, the honeymoon will be shorter than usual. The issue is overviewed in the USIP report clearly. Here they mention three reasons why the middle class with not accept military rule.

Indeed, the fragility and vulnerability of the caretaker government
derives from the fact that there is no popularly elected legislature.
While the public appears to support the military’s intervention at
present, this could change should the army sustain its interference in
governance and should the interim government defer the restoration of
democracy.

There is evidence that this intervention was met with public support,
but the panel questioned how long the public will remain patient. This
is due to a number of recent changes in Bangladeshi society. Since the
mid-1990s, Bangladesh’s middle class has grown and become increasingly
vocal about its own economic interests. Bangladesh’s civil society has
also grown stronger and is more capable of challenging the government.
A vibrant business class has emerged that is increasingly interested
in securing Bangladesh’s business environment. Finally, while
Bangladesh’s media has been deeply polarized historically, more
independent and neutral media outlets and journalists have emerged who
are willing to challenge the government.
These factors suggest that Bangladeshis may grow weary of the military more
quickly than in the past. The military may not be able to maintain its
legitimacy if it remains in power indefinitely. One speaker observed
that should widespread demonstrations take place as democracy is
denied, the army would likely retreat to its barracks. This speaker
doubted that the army would be willing to take up arms against the
general public should it be called upon to quell an uprising.

So there is no point for army to ruin its good name and clean image among the public. Then what alternatives do we, who want to see a reformed system and the army back in the barrack at the same time in due time, have. My advice will to have a deadline for power handover and that date should be Jan 11th, 2008 giving them exactly one year to enact the reforms. In the meantime, the government need to focus on

1. Having a free and fair election. Reform the commission and voter laws to create a strong system that encourages honest candidates to seek public office.
2. Anti corruption drive. In stead of focusing on personalities, focus on the law and the system so that you can bring in good people into politics and punish the corrupt within the framework of law.
3. Bring transparency into governance. Be clear on what they want to implement and how they want to do it.

What is the role of international government in all this?

Although, there are lot of rumours but I think our men in khaki is keeping them guessing as well.
Again quoting from the USIP report.

In a grim assessment, one speaker described the current situation as a “serious policy dilemma” for the international community. Apart from exhortation, panelists and participants alike agreed that there are few tools that the international community can use to compel Dhaka to restore parliamentary democracy, improve governance and justice provision, diminish the politicization of the bureaucracies, restrain Islamist militants, and improve law and order. Limited options notwithstanding, all members of the panel agreed that the donor governments should make an active effort to get Bangladesh’s democracy back on the right track.