Wed 21 Feb 2007
The story so far…
[Riot Police Chase Demonstrators/ bdnews24.com]
1. 2006 was both annus horribilis and a Dickensian “best of times” for Bangladesh. On the one hand, a year of continuous street battles between gov’t (BNP: Bangladesh Nationalist Party) and opposition (AL: Awami League), all centered on the coming January national elections. On the other hand, euphoria over Yunus’ Nobel victory (the only thing that got people more thrilled was BD’s 1st World Cup cricket victory vs Pakistan).
[Army Jeep Patrols Dhanmondi/Qamruzzaman/ bdnews24.com]
2. After a year of crippling violence, strikes, chess games and war of words, a State Of Emergency (SOE) brought in a new interim (”Caretaker”) government. The key force behind the was the army and international powers. US, UK and Canadian Embassies had already refused to certify the Jan elections. A final blow came when both UN and EU suspended election observation. A few hours later, army+navy+air chief met with interim President Iajuddin, after which he stepped down as head of Caretaker/Interim Government. In the TV speech, he was contrite and (in 180 u-turn) accepted blame for escalating election controversy. Army role was made easier by Iajuddin calling military out to “maintain law and order”. As with other old men over last 30 years, Iajuddin thought he would “use” the army and other players to his own agenda. Guess again.
[Fakhruddin Ahmed Being Sworn In/Photo: Focus Bangla]
3. New interim gov’t is headed by ex-banker Fakhruddin Ahmed, widely perceived as an honest man. NYT called it “martial law” and Economist called it “Coup That Dare Not Speak Its Name”. Past military coups have happened for much less provocation, but equation is different in 2007. An important factor this time around is the BD army’s role in UN peacekeeping missions (they are the 2d largest supplier of troops to UN missions). Support for at least some, limited, army role in stabilizing the situation has come from some unusual quarters, including leading left-of-centre newspaper PROTHOM ALO.
4. The most popular move of the new “caretaker” government was:
- Passing laws to revive the Anti-Corruption Commission (effectively killed during BNP)
[Barrister Najmul Huda Arrested/Bdnews24]
- Arresting all the big guns from both parties. These include godfathers who terrorized BD for last 15 years of “democracy”, people so powerful that no one ever imagined they would see them in handcuffs. Arrests were made by the ultra-powerful Joint Security Forces (a combo of police, army and RAB). All arrested on charges of corruption of every variety.
- So far, 60-70% the detainees have been in BNP, naturally as they were in power for last 5 years. But leading tigers of AL have also been arrested, especially in round 3
- The newspapers have gone bananas, publishing EVERY major report on corruption of government ministers that they did not dare print for last 15 years. The reports have come out so quickly, that it is clear that the journos knew the facts, but did not dare report for fear of being beaten to death (a legit fear, look @ Tipu Sultan who had his hands crushed during AL, and other journos who were killed during BNP rule)
- The revelations are endless, mind-boggling and staggering. 132 apartments, scores of BMWs, illegal guns, thousands of dollars, stolen relief goods (corrugated tin seems to be a favorite, as well as dates—one minister had hundreds of pounds of dates, all of which had rotted), endangered deer, trare crocodiles, and beer!!
- From the gel-spiked Home Minister’s love for shirts, to the Forest King’s money stashed in pillows. A bad Fellini movie, crossed with Idi Amin, hatched into a Francesco Vezzoli tableau.
- After two months of waiting, finally the “Crown Prince” Tarique Zia, son of PM Khaleda Zia was arrested. The man who is alleged to have taken 5% of every business deal that went down in last five years (hence “Mr. 5%”). The boy-man who ruled through a reign of terror and purged the BNP of all dissenting voices (hence the defectors who formed LDP in December). Malaysia has already frozen $250M of his assets.
- Each of the arrested ministers/thugs/top guns probably owns assets of millions of dollars. The government lawyers who will have to prosecute are paid a pittance, have virtually no staff and few resources. The arrestees are paying for the best lawyers in town.
Why is this man smiling?
[Nobel Laureates Amartya Sen & Muhammad Yunus/ bdnews24.com]
5. Nobel Laureate Dr. Yunus announced that he was entering politics. Long, sharp knives came out from BNP+AL. AL’s Hasina called him a “loan shark”, BNP’s Saifur said microcredit was “bogus” and Yunus only got Nobel because of “Clinton connection.” Three months later, Yunus had withdrawn from politics. What happened?
[Riot Police Beat Protester/ bdnews24.com]
6. Rewind for a second. So what were the year-long battles between AL and BNP all about? This was mainly over power, and to a lesser degree about ideology. The AL is presented conventionally as center-left (though they have been shifting further to the center+taking on islamist symbols), BNP as center-right (although has swung hard-right+islamist in last 5 years). BNP came out of an army background, but in last 10 years, AL has also made inroads into army support. AL is still presented in opposition propaganda as “pro India” and “anti Islam”.The fight was mainly about the coming elections, and particularly 3 factors:
i) Voter List: Subject of raging court battles for last 2 years. BNP defied a court order to update existing voter list (created by AL in 2000), and instead created a brand new voter list. An NDI survey found 13 million extra names on the Voters List. Minority voters (esp, Hindu+CHT Pahari voters) are of course wholesale missing from this list–– par for the course. The total voter count was 93 million, a mathematical impossibility from 2001 census.In face of mounting domestic/international pressure EC finally agreed to correct the voters list, but the work was incomplete when opposition boycott began.
ii) CTG (Caretaker Government): This was a system instituted after the 1996 vote-fraud marred elections, whereby, 3 months before each election the gov’t steps down, and a CTG takes over to conduct “fair”elections. This worked in 1996 and 2001, but by 2006, surprise surprise, the CTG itself has become super-controversial. Since taking over CTG, Iajuddin was a horrorshow autocrat. He bypassed and ignored his advisors nonstop. 4 advisors quit in protest. Rest is history
iii) EC (Election Commission): Riddled with what AL alleges are BNP partisans, and most importantly in charge of implementing the uber-controversial voter list.
[Students Protest Rise In Islamic Militancy/ bdnews24.com/Firoz Ahmed]
7. Many (esp. in western media) presented the cancelled elections as a battle of Islamists vs. Secularists. Certainly the BNP is much closer to the Islamists and in the last 5 years gave the Jamaat e Islami unprecedented access to power by appointing them to 2 powerful ministries: Industries & Social Affairs. In addition, rise of anti-Ahmadiya campaign, rash of bomb attacks by underground militant groups such as JMB, full HSC status for madrasas, etc. happened on BNP’s watch. However in last one month, AL muddied this binary picture by signing a MOU with a minor Islamist party Khalefat e Majlish, agreeing to implement their demands, which include: i) blasphemy law; ii) madrasa HSC status; iii) banning Ahmadiyas; iv) partial fatwa power to village councils. AL in its desperation for the Islamist vote, obliterated a key difference with BNP. This was followed by national protests, including condemnation by AL rank and file workers, and threats to quit by senior AL leaders (including Saber who had earlier said on BBC, “AL is for secularism”). The Al belatedly withdrew from the MOU, but the damage is done.
[Police beat AL's Tofail Ahmed and Workers Party Prez Rashed Khan Menon/Photo: Daily Star]
8. In the chess game between BNP and AL, the BNP controlled the game, and AL made blunders. These include:
- focusing on individuals in EC and CTG as “pro-BNP” and demanding their ouster, to which the response has been to bleed out the protests for as long as possible, and then replacing them with someone equally controversial (to AL).
- welcoming military dictator Ershad into alliance and failing to anticipate the responding chess move of accelerating the court case against him which deemed him ineligible to run for elections after AL had already given him many seats.
- continuing to use the weapon of hartals which shut down urban life, choke off business and turn (at least city) population against AL
- repeatedly changing positions on whether to join or boycott election: from absolutist (”not unless 11 demands met”) to incremental (”voter list+Iajuddin step down”) to opportunist (”we have ershad, to hell with voter list”) to absurd (”cancel my last announcement”)
[Workers Party Protests Kansat Killings/ bdnews24.com/Firoz Ahmed]
9. In September 2006, BNP had many PR deficits, all of which were household words: Monga famine, Kansat rebellion, Gazipur, Phulbari, Shonir Akhra, Loadshedding, JMB terrorists+Bangla Bhai, Bombings, Altaf, RAB, etc. These were overshadowed by the street battles between AL and BNP. Compared to AL’s fight-no-wait-negotiate-no-fight-changed-my-mind-again-yes-no dithering, deadlines, property destruction, & conflicting statements, non-strategy strategy, BNP came off looking like they are in control. Even the mass defection of BNP members to LDP, days before the CTG government was to take office (timed so that there could be no BNP revenge against defectors), was not (yet) a death blow.
[Dhaka University Opens On Friday After 3 Month Strike Ends/Qamruzzaman/ bdnews24.com]
10. The horse trading between BNP+AL has gone on for so long, with so many compromises, that the ideological differences are getting microscopic. But now it seems that both BNP and AL played the game a little too well. Hoist by their own petard, the BNP now faces mass arrests of most of their senior leaders on corruption charges, and AL faces same but only less because they were last in power 5 years ago– so not as much time to loot. Disgust is tremendous from the rank and file and calls are rising to purge both parties of top guns. Two choice quotes from PROTHOM ALO:
- BNP activist in Banani: “Those who build their house roof from looted corrugated tin meant for flood relief, how are they people’s representative? Those who beautify their garden with government rice, how are they so close to the party chief?”
- AL activist in Khulna: “Terrorists, extortionists and black money owners have sidelined all the honest politicians.”
What next?
January 11th, 2007 at 3:31 pm
Naeem, technically BNP has not been the govt past few weeks (even though CA had been dubbed BNP’s puppet).
And the opposition had been a group of allies led by AL.
You really think the defense alone made Iajuddin budge? I doubt it. I think there was foreign pressure.
What or who finally shook up Iajuddin to see things as they were…would we ever know?
January 11th, 2007 at 3:46 pm
Zafa thanks, I am updating the chronology as I get comments, so I will add your notes.
Keep in mind this is for an uninitiated audience, so I am deliberately simplifying matters so they don’t get lost.
January 11th, 2007 at 4:02 pm
Instead of sending the text, I just sent SAJA the link to this blog post. That way as people update it, they can see the latest.
January 11th, 2007 at 4:13 pm
NSI Chief removed. Question is why?
The head of National Security Intelligence, Major General Rezakul Haider, was removed Thursday from his position. Another serving military officer will replace him as director general. Haider is a former deputy head of Forces Intelligence (DGFI).
January 11th, 2007 at 4:19 pm
[...] 007 @ 16:19 EST South Asia Bangladesh, Politics Global Roundups Drishtipat Group Blog sums up the current political scenario in Bangaldesh. “The S [...]
January 11th, 2007 at 4:19 pm
AL’s announcement to join the election and then calling it off after Ershad fiasco would be a good addition to the chronology.
January 11th, 2007 at 4:27 pm
“3. The army is calling the shots, for now. This was made much easier by the fact that Iajuddin had already called the army out to “maintain law and order.” As with many other old men over last 30 years, he thought he was cunning and would “manage” the army, but they managed him. Still people never learn.”
Now I know how a rumor starts. Do you have any source for this info? Or is it your speculation? As far as I understand the constitution, SOE is a constitutionally mandated procedure run by the civilians, not the Army.
January 11th, 2007 at 4:32 pm
Incident of October 27-28-29 (beating of people on the street by AL activists and dancing on the deadbodies on live TV) is also a nice addition.
January 11th, 2007 at 4:38 pm
[from bdnews24]
16:51=Army chief Lt Gen Moeen U Ahmed, Naval chief Rear Admiral Hasan Ali Khan and Air force chief Air Vice Marshal Fakhrul Azam meets Iajuddin @ Banga Bhaban
21:12=Iajuddin declares State of Emergency
23:59=Iajuddin steps down
January 11th, 2007 at 4:45 pm
In the context of speculation of what might have
caused the army to put pressure on Iajuddin, if indeed Naeem’s report is accurate, the following
story appearing in the daily star seems most relevant.
With rank and file of the army benefitting greatly from the peacemaking role, it would seem that this was the most important development that forced out Iajuddin.
————————————————-
UN threatens Bangladesh’s peacekeeping role
Afp, Dhaka
The United Nations yesterday threatened to strip the Bangladesh army of its prestigious and lucrative international ‘blue helmet’ peacekeeping duties if it mobilised to support disputed elections this month.
The warning came after the country’s president declared a state of emergency and imposed a night curfew amid escalating tension ahead of polls, scheduled to take place on January 22.
“The United Nations appreciates the traditional role played by the Bangladesh armed forces in support of previous fully contested elections through the maintenance of law and order,” said UN resident coordinator Renata Lok Dessallien in a statement.
“However, should the 22 January parliamentary elections proceed without participation of all major political parties, deployment of the armed forces in support of the election process raises questions. This may have implications for Bangladesh’s future role in peacekeeping operations,” she added.
The Awami League and its allies are boycotting the elections, demanding a total overhaul of the voter list and a swathe of other reforms.
January 11th, 2007 at 4:57 pm
“However, should the 22 January parliamentary elections proceed without participation of all major political parties, deployment of the armed forces in support of the election process raises questions.”
Two comments:
1) Bangladesh Army is basically Bangladesh Army, no matter how much they help out the UN. So if the supreme commandar of Bangladesh Army orders them to do something, they’re duty bound to do that. So the UN can raise all the questions they want about the civilian administration. But if the intention of the above statement is to provoke the Bangladesh Army to break command, that’s not a very good sign. Besides, we have to remember that the UN job is given to Bangladesh Army because of their quality, not as a charity. And one of the very important qualities for any army is their ability to pursue command and order.
2) Personally, I’m not sure how much the UN can afford to not employ Bangladesh Army to work for them. Aren’t they suffering from a severe shortage of manpower all around the world?
January 11th, 2007 at 4:58 pm
The NSI chief was a staunch BNP loyal and the AL has been demanding his removal from long. May be BNP played too much jokers, and is now running out of the cards.
January 11th, 2007 at 5:18 pm
Sadly I notice a double standard regarding the army.
Army is always protrayed by some as power hungry corrup group, eager to grab the power. I’ve seen numerous comments here in this single blog expressing (including mine) fear of army takeover.
Again Army gets a very good boy grade when the army wishfully ( wishful thinking/rumor) forces the supreme commander to take decision favoring the opposition.
But we forget the bottomline, Army is a force maintained by the tax payers money only to obey the commands of the supreme commander, whatever the command is. Army is not a local boys club, or a group theater or a human rights group. Here a soldier will give life at the order of the supreme commander, never ask whether the order was right or wrong.
We have no reason to assume that Army did anything against the wishes of the supreme commander this time too.
Since take over of power 80 days ago, three chiefs visited the president at least a dozen times. They visited him yesterday, and at least 2 times last week. They also visited him before the day army was deployed.
So I do not see any relationship between this visit and a possible Military coup.
Most unfortunately this army gets rebuke by our conscietious people when they maintain their full professionalism by remaining committed to following the command of the supreme commander. This sort of rebuke can be very destructive.
January 11th, 2007 at 5:37 pm
Iajuddin WAS forced out.
You just have to compare his press release from three days ago with his speech today to see the 180 U turn.
Also the difference between the past visits from the army and this one is that this one was not called by the President but the army chiefs.
The chain of events described by Farhan is what happened. Threat of UN was a key reason.
ARMY has been NEVER called power hungry or corrupt. But it has been said that in the short term military option looks good but in the long term it does not bode well for the country.
A few interesting thing that happened Prothom Alo editor Matiur Rahman categorically called for army intervention the day before yesterday in ATN Bangla.
Also significant was the press statement of 10 retired senior army officers in the paper yesterday.
I think army should be with the people. Iajuddin was the most hated man in the country who has been acting like an autocrat. I don’t know what is giving you the idea that he suddently became so charitable all on a sudden. If the army has told him that they will not support arbitrary decision of this person who has never held any elected public office same way army backed out of backing Ershad, then I think it was a very brave decision that will help our country. So I am cautiously optimistic. However, I am worried about the curbing off the rights.
Khaleda, herself, said yesterday that nobody will be able to push back the election showing clear signs that she was unaware of this development. However, BNP leader Najmul Huda calling the US and UK ambassador names in public TV gave away sign that they were not happy with the latest moves and things were going out of whack.
Also pretty much all the advisers were going to overrule him today (see previous entries in DP Blog).
I agree with Naeem that Army being already on the road made it much easier for them to call the shots.
January 11th, 2007 at 5:40 pm
This is an excellent, impartial chronological documentation and thanks to Naeem. I do feel it needs to be a little more detailed.
Some of you may still see the microscopic difference between the two parties, but to me they are one and the same thing. BNP played the cards very well and they still are. I believe they have a few more jokers up their sleeves. They have instilled BNP loyals in every layers of administration in such a way thet even if you replace one, another will come up.
AL has lost the last bit of respect after they signed that ‘disgraceful’ MOU with Khelafat-e-Majlish. They lost their credibility completely with their ‘yes’ to election and ‘no’ to election swings.
Both of these parties only care for ‘POWER’ (we knew that, didn’t we?), there is no ideology (Rashed Khan Menon and Mufti Shahidul Islam - Not a bad match!!) and not a bit of concern for the people.
Imagine the irony! People took to the street to remove Ershad in 1990, and they are now again on the streets to have him participate in the election(that is basically the reason at the end why AL did not participate!)! We are just pawns in the chess games of these politicians (Cliche! I know). Look at the choices we are left with - on one hand we have a corrupt right wing BNP-Fundamentalist-anti-liberation force JAMAAT alliance, and a so-called liberal, ideologically bankrupt AL and left wing-Khelafat-e-Majlish - Autocrat Ershad pact on the other. What a conundrum!!
January 11th, 2007 at 5:41 pm
CPJ alarmed by censorship during Bangladesh political crisis
New York, January 11, 2007—The Committee to Protect Journalists is alarmed by orders from the Bangladeshi Information Ministry that private broadcast outlets suspend news programs and print outlets halt critical news coverage during a state of emergency announced this evening.
“It’s essential that at this very sensitive moment Bangladeshi citizens have unfettered access to information,” CPJ Executive Director Joel Simon said. “We call on authorities to withdraw their restrictions on the media, to respect the right of journalists to report fully and freely, and to ensure citizens’ rights to independent information.”
Bangladeshi President Iajuddin Ahmed today resigned from his role as chief advisor to the caretaker government after declaring a state of emergency and a nighttime curfew. The move followed weeks of violence as rival political parties failed to reach a compromise over plans to hold an election later this month. Earlier today, U.N. and European Union officials announced that they were withdrawing support of the elections and were pulling their observers from the country.
Bangladeshi television stations suspended all private news broadcasts and talk shows on orders from the official Press Information Department, journalists told CPJ. “The restriction will be effective until further order from the ministry,” Khairul Alam Mukul, news editor for the privately owned Bengali-language satellite station NTV, told The Associated Press.
Officials also warned print news outlets not to publish critical coverage, journalists said. “We were verbally told of some restrictions, but there has been nothing written,” Mahfuz Anam, Dhaka-based Daily Star editor and Prothom Alo publisher, told CPJ. “We are waiting for further information.”
The military has been deployed to enforce the curfew during the emergency, although the government said credentialed members of the press would be allowed to move freely. Still, several journalists told CPJ that their land telephone lines had been disconnected.
Today’s developments followed a series of threats against reporters in districts outside of the capital, Dhaka, local media reported. Six journalists in Rupgonj received a package from the banned Islamist militant group Jamaatul Mujahedeen Bangladesh (JMB) with funeral shrouds and a letter threatening them with death, according to the daily Amader Shomoy. The threat was apparently sparked by news reports that two JMB members had been arrested. And in southwestern Bangladesh, where eight journalists have been murdered since 2000, a group identifying itself as Purbo Bangla Mission Juddho threatened to bomb the press club in Rupsha, Khulna district, and kill correspondents for local and national dailies, according to the Daily Star.
“We are concerned about the mounting physical danger members of the press are facing during this crisis, and call on the government to do everything its power to ensure that journalists are not targets of violence,” Simon said.
CPJ is a New York–based, independent, nonprofit organization that works to safeguard press freedom worldwide. For more information, visit http://www.cpj.org.
January 11th, 2007 at 5:45 pm
Ten new advisers are to be announced by Fazlul Huq today.
Are there many neutral figures left who are also credible?
January 11th, 2007 at 5:49 pm
Folks, thanks for feedback. I am updating the timeline as I am getting feedback.
Rumi, Flying, Sensible, Saleh, it may not be immediately obvious, but I have been updating the chronology continuously and have taken your comments into consideration in my revisions.
January 11th, 2007 at 5:58 pm
Everybody’s anticipating an army takeover! But I wonder if the CTG system is given another chance here(by whoever - UN, EC, US, or army??) before army takes over. May be that is the reason that Justice Fazlul Haque has become the CA and a new cabinet is being formed. I think that would be the best thing that can happen right now - a new CTG conducting the elections under army supervision.
January 11th, 2007 at 6:02 pm
Iajuddin’s last press release three days ago:
http://www.thedailystar.net/2007/01/07/d7010701084.htm
“I’m committed to handing over power to an elected government through holding election in time. I seek cooperation from all in protecting the constitution.”
Referring to the Election Commission (EC) announcement for holding the election on January 22, the president noted that the EC had already taken all measures for holding the election.
“My government has ordered the law enforcers to take stern measures so that no quarter can disturb law and order in a planned way to thwart the upcoming elections,” the president said.
He said steps have been taken for the people who will choose their candidates by casting their vote fearlessly.
The government firmly believes that the January 22 election will be held in a “free, fair and impartial manner”, the president said.
Dwelling on the standoff over the polls, the president/ chief adviser pushed the ball to next government’s court as he said the elected government would have the scope for resolving the prevailing political crisis in accordance with the constitution.
“Being a teacher, I always discharged my responsibility impartially. I had to ignore other parties in accommodating the demands of the agitating parties during the tenure of the caretaker government. Despite that question of my impartiality has been raised with a motive,” he added.
Regretting the “sudden” withdrawal of the nomination papers by the grand alliance on the last day, the president said this announcement has led to a new crisis, which made him stupefied as well as disappointed although they (grand alliance) had come to the election after “accepting everything”.
“At this stage of the election process, according to the constitution, there is no scope for sending reference to the court,” the caretaker government chief categorically said to seal such an option suggested by many.
Iajuddin’s speech from yesterday:
http://www.thedailystar.net/2007/01/12/d7011201022.htm
President Iajuddin Ahmed has admitted flaws in the process of updating voter list and said it is imperative to prepare a flawless voter list to hold a free and fair election.
Addressing the nation over radio and television last night, the president said it is not possible to hold an acceptable election within the stipulated 90 days, without correcting the voter list.
Referring to the demands of the grand alliance for transparent ballot boxes and issuing voter ID cards, the president said the general election is an expensive process and it will not be good for a nation to hold more than one general election for a specific term.
“Any election without participation of all the parties will not be acceptable at home and abroad,” he said, indicating deferment of the polls.
He said the new council of advisers will carry out the responsibility in consultation with all concerned and ensure governance by people’s representatives.
The president said he had to assume the office of Chief Advisor on October 29 in accordance with the constitution and took various steps towards holding the election in consultation with the advisers.
“Almost all my decisions and steps were either accepted or rejected by any of the political alliances…there was a lack of peace, discipline and tolerance.”
January 11th, 2007 at 6:03 pm
Link to DP is up on SAJA:
http://www.sajaforum.org/2007/01/bangladesh_a_de.html
January 11th, 2007 at 6:12 pm
If Iajuddin ( The supreme commander) was forced out of his CA chair, it was then a military coup. This coup, as it seems, was executed by armed forces, asked for and planned by the Awami-Ershad-Shakhul Hadis-Bodruddoja Mohajote, facilitated by some journalists and businessmen.
Like that of March 24, 1982 Sattar removal, I am awaiting a welcome speech by Sheikh Hasina.
What happens to democracy, secularism, people, students power? How we are better than Pakistan?
By the way who are these ‘people’ army ought to be with?
After failing all the street agitation, Hartal, Oborodh, political meneuvering, chess playing, media blitzkrig; there was apparently no other option left but to beg army help to defeat BNP’s politics.
January 11th, 2007 at 6:17 pm
I concur with Naeem’s and Tanveer Bhai’s assessment of the possible causes behind the latest development. I see this is a positive development for BD. Army will be very reluctant to take over power as that will be more loss to them than gain.
Without tacit backing from any major political parties army will have to double think what will happen once they take over power. Even in 1982 when Ershad took over, there was expressed support by AL. “I am not unhappy” said Hasina when she was asked about the Ershad takover.
This is 2007. Bangladeshi people got lots of taste of free press, freedom of speech, etc. They will not easily give up those freedoms and the chances of what Ziaur Rahman and Ershad did (formed political parties, etc)is very slim this time. Moreover, army hopefully didn’t forget the memory of toppling of Ershad by mass upsurge
Additinally, both major parties feel that they have good chances of winning an election unlike the condition of AL in the early eighties when AL had only 39 seats in 1979 election. For AL then, it was politically profitable to keep Ershad in Power while destroying BNP. Actually, AL exactly did that during entire regim of Ershad. In essence, Ershad would not have stay in power more than several years if AL and BNP could wage simultaneous movement against Ershad. You know what happenned when they finally did.
Army is more professional now and financially, way better than early eighties (they get good portion of the BD budget, have good earning from the sena kalyan sanstha and the UN duty -the big one). I do not see BD army is that foolish to taking over the power now.
All indications are there that Iajudding was forced to quit CA position (may even at gun point). When I was reading his speech, it appeared that most probably it was written not by any of his henceman.
My speculation is that there will be a non-party CTG soon and election will hold within several to six months with participated by all parties. Overall, today’s development is a positive news for democracy in BD.
Thanks,
=Afsar
January 11th, 2007 at 6:19 pm
Rumi bhai,
I am not going to engage with you in this one. I understand your frustration at the latest development. But none of us know anything more than what is out there. Let’s see what happens in the next few days.
January 11th, 2007 at 6:39 pm
[...] sful system of their own design. Naeem sums up the showdown of the last few months on Drishtipat here, the blog which has remai [...]
January 11th, 2007 at 6:47 pm
thnx Naeem.
Sensible::
I think UN mission is like a golden goose for our lowpaid but highly facilitated Defense forces. UN made it clear that a coup will beget immediate stop of BD peacekeeping role overseas. Although some of the top-ranking officials in Army are corrupted and make big bucks from underhand dealings but it is no where near at the time of Gen. Ershad. So, a coup may not be in the pipeline. But, who knows!
January 11th, 2007 at 6:52 pm
Post 22 says
“If Iajuddin ( The supreme commander) was forced out of his CA chair, it was then a military coup. This coup, as it seems, was executed by armed forces, asked for and planned by the Awami-Ershad-Shakhul Hadis-Bodruddoja Mohajote, facilitated by some journalists and businessmen. ”
Wrong. Don’t try to shift your own blame to other. There are no indication that this militarty intervention was done to favor the mohajote. Mohajote is already in a very good position by forcing BNP towards a farcical election. This is BNP’s face-saving solution. This is BNP/Jamat’s way out of an one-party-election.
Remember, Bangladesh Army is traditionally very much anti-Awami League.
January 11th, 2007 at 7:15 pm
aaa:
Almost all the retired Army chiefs except Gen. Mahbub joined AL. And, the coup led by Gen. Nasim in 1996 was to favor AL also. How Army is anti-AL then?
January 11th, 2007 at 7:24 pm
Mr. Rumi makes good points about military
involvement and how it collides with notions of a supposed non-political entity that most of us entertain.
A defensible argument could be that the president was not following the constitution and the BD military is only bound to follow the constitution. However, as a precedent (assuming the military was involved in pushing Iajuddin out), this cannot be good as it would similar insubordination of civilian rule in the future.
Nontheless, in the current situation, much worse precedents have been set. This one seems to pale in comparison.
I am afraid that the political parties will take the wrong lesson–they can force their will on the nation by holding the nation and its economy hostage.
While in this particular case, one can argue that the biggest villain was the politicization of the institutions by the past government and the role of Iajuddin, I am not confident that our politicians will not take this as a how-to lesson.
If my fears are correct, watch out for the losers in the next election.
It would be much better if a broad-based citizen movement were to emerge that places demands on our politicians; included among other demands, including separation of judiciary, setting up of an independent election commission, etc., should be a demand to accept the results of polls if it is certified as fair by a consensus of non-political election observers.
There are plenty of villains in the present episode, and none should escape without paying some political price.
January 11th, 2007 at 10:15 pm
Rumi Bhai,
The military has not taken the power, it has declined to obey the order of Iajuddin, who has proved himself to be the most autocratic and partisan CG chief in BD history. Military did the same thing in 1990, when they refused to obey Ershad. This is a laudable move by the armed forces, although the international pressure and the fear of losing UN peacekeeper position has played as the deciding factor.
Now the new CG must ensure an environment for free and fair election. Reconstitution of the EC, admin and police should be the first thing to do. Good to know that the NSI chief Rezakul Haider has been removed. I know him personally, he is a strong pro-Jamaat officer who also has great connection with Hawa Bhaban.
January 11th, 2007 at 10:31 pm
With this semi-final development [ I don't dare to call it final because we can expects many other unexpected developements, before the finale is played] every group failed especially DP failed more than any other group. Again, I will request not to censor my comment as it seems harsh a critiism of the forum of which I am a beneficiary as I can ventilate myself with my very little English skill.
The series of developements during the last 6 months, besides politics we have many things to learn if we long to learn.
As Iajuddin was not fully neutral, so was the DP. Most members of the DP forum through their write-ups overtly or covertly identified with the 14-party alliance and they equated that alliance as the humanist and secular alliance.
But that alliance has nakedly exposed them and proven they don’t care about ideology other than ideiology of power-all-politics.
They are neither pro-humanists nor secularist. I’m very sorry to note that DP pioneers failed to see their sense of humanity when humans were killed so cruely and mercilessly, so sub-animal barbaric way as most of them sided with agitating alliance. DP failed to show it’s appropriate reaction.
However, when they have seen most expectedly their alliance signed MOU with Kelaphat Mujlish and nominated very well known pro-taleban leaders, Mufti Shaheed and Moulana Habibur Rahman in instead of 1st line progressive leaders like Nurul Islam Naheed, perhaps DP got somewhat embarrassed supporting them.
All these developement should have opened our eyes more widely and of course after a humongous cost for all of us.
Thanks.
January 11th, 2007 at 11:38 pm
At the end of this two and half months power struggle one premise was set that we all need to think about for the sake of real democracy -
If street power of blockade, hartal and violence are means for changing of power, then even after a free, fair and all party election what is the future of real democracy in Bangladesh?? Loosing side can simply choose the same path of blockade, hartal and violence to gain power.
January 12th, 2007 at 12:02 am
* Had dinner tonight with a friend who works @ UN. I mentioned the UN statement from yesterday. He has not heard of it (not his group) and was very surprised––said it was uncharacteristically undiplomatic language, esp give that the new SG is still being extremely cautious (and criticized for it, e.g., silence on Saddam hanging). Of course, if you look closely, the language was diplomatic, and the word “threatened” was added by our press.
http://thedailystar.net/2007/01/12/d70112011312.htm
*Ex-Advisor Hasan Mashhud Chowdhury, also a former army chief: “I don’t think the problem will be solved by declaring state of emergency. Most probably it will be shown as a step to ensure stability for a limited period of time, which will have no effect on the main problem. The problems will remain very glaringly and it will not take much time to manifest.”
*Afsar Ali blogged: “Even in 1982 when Ershad took over, there was expressed support by AL. “I am not unhappy” said Hasina”
My memory is scratchy, but in 1981 Sattar won defeating Kamal Hossain who ran from AL. Was Hasina already back in country by 1982? Maybe she was, I don’t recall, but just checking to make sure.
January 12th, 2007 at 12:05 am
Now that the PREZ has resigned… it’ll be interesting to see what develops [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/help/3681938.stm].
January 12th, 2007 at 12:17 am
Naeem@33
Sheikh Hasina was very much in BD when Ershad took over power on 24th march 1982. In fact Sheikh Hasina came to Bangladesh in 1981, about 2 months before President Zia was killed. I still remember that stormy evening of kalboishakhi, waiting in front of Aolad Hossain market to have a glimpse of Sheikh Hasina.
I also remember Sheikh hasina’s statement welcoming Ershad’s martial law.
January 12th, 2007 at 12:40 am
FZ Said:
“The military has not taken the power, it has declined to obey the order of Iajuddin,…”
I have not heard or read anything like that. I may have missed it. Could anyone please provide me a reference for the fact that the army has “declined” to obey the order of Iajuddin.
tteller:
I agree with you to some extent that I am also a little disappointed at DP’s stand in the last few months. Blaming everything on Iajuddin is not justified. BNP was the puppeteer. And I blame BNP and AL equally.
The role of media was also sometimes did not seem neutral to me. Here are a few instances:
The US ambassador told the journalists (in reference to the NDI report), “ 13 % errors were found in the voter list. They were duplicates and in some cases individuals were omitted. But I don’t think any party will benefit from it, or in other words, none of the parties will lose anything because there is no evidence that it was done intentionally.”(Not her exact words) Then she repeated it. I have seen it on TV with my own eyes. I hoped that this will ease up the controversy of the voter list. To my surprise, only one paper – Ittefaq (I read prothom-alo and daily star) reported it correctly. Others just stated that there was 13% errors or ‘bhua’ voters. Matiur Rahman (with all due respect) wrote in his editorial…NDI report has proven what we’ve been saying so far, there are 13% ‘bhua’ voters in the list!!! ‘Errors’ and ‘Bhua’ voters are not the same thing ( I am not saying there were no fake voters in the list and BNP did not manipulate it at all.)
Without a birth registry or identification number it is impossible to have a 100% correct voter list (I know this for a fact since I have been collecting and working with data for the last five years). Current voter list has 13% error. The CTG and the political parties must agree on what minimum percentage of error is acceptable to all and state it up front. ‘Voter list is not complete and incorrect’ is a vague term. ‘Correct’ and ‘Complete’ must be defined.
Around a month ago, when US and UK dignitaries was urging the opposition to participate in elections, prothom-alo editorial criticized their interference in our domestic issues. Yesterday, when barrister Nazmul Huda expressed his concern about foreign interference, prothom-alo editorial said that these nations are our development partners and they have investment in our country and their involvement is quite justified and common.
When AL signed that ‘disgraceful’ fotwa MOU, I expected a huge outcry from the leading newspapers (and also from DP members). Only Mahfuz Anam was bold enough to take a firm stand and address it with proper importance.
January 12th, 2007 at 12:46 am
I’m not sure why we’re being so concerned about army involvement based on assumptions. I don’t think anyone surely knows if the President was forced by the army or not. I agree that it seems that the president made a u-turn considering his stance just a few days back. But that does not necessarily mean that the army was involved in causing this u-turn.
On the other hand, if this was indeed forced by army, that would be insubordination. I don’t think there is much to be happy about if this was true. Unfortunately, in Bangladesh, we tend to be happy in such situations when the events happen in our favor and get really angry if things go the other way.
January 12th, 2007 at 1:10 am
Constitutional dilemma:
If there is no Jan 22 election (seems unlikely at this point), there is no way that election could be held within 90 days. According to the constitution, election can be held after this time through a presidium ordinance and if all the political parties agree. But the next parliament will have to legitimize that election. This is my understanding so far. I am no constitution expert; please correct me if I am wrong.
But if this is correct, any political party that loses the election can allege vote rigging, file a case on the legitimacy of the election and have it voided. They are not trustworthy; surely, the loser will complain of rigging and try to cancel the election And the political stalemate would continue. Only solution is if we can have our political parties have it in writing that they will not question the results of the election. But it would be interesting to see if either party would agree to this.
What are your thoughts? Any other solutions??
January 12th, 2007 at 1:15 am
Shahed,
For the record Naeem and I wrote very strong rebuttal in DS op-ed against Awami MOU. Do due diligence before making random accusation.
By the way, in case you forgot we don’t paid to do any of this. How come you did not write any thing?
Regarding election, we, as individuals, took stand for fair election. There are times when you need to take a stand. We were non-partisan but we took a stand.
ttler, we know your stand. Until people in DP take a cabinet ministry in a BNP cabinet you will not be happy. For the umpteenth time, these stands are individual not of the organization’s. Also these stands are for the issue and not for any party as was evident from our stand on the MOU.
I can understand that there are some very upset people at the development yesterday and are having temper tentrums. But people are jumping the gun here without knowing any information.
Take a break from the blog and see what transpires in the coming days before jumping to any conclusion. You are hanging out too much infront of the computer :).
January 12th, 2007 at 5:22 pm
“An NBR Proposal to New Caretaker Govt and Future Elected Govt in Bangladesh”
After so many days of political agitation, I hope that new Caretaker Govt will able to provide a free and acceptable general election in Bangladesh. I as a Board of Director of Change Bangladesh Forum, USA (www.changebangladesh.com)
like to submit few proposals to the current CA Govt and future elected Govt in
Bangladesh. The proposals are the following:
1) Provide a level playing field for all candidates in upcoming general election in Bangladesh.
2) Help pharmaceuticals sector to florish like garments industries.
3)Expedite and establish API zone to build more facilities to produce pharmaceuticals raw materials.
4)Provide incentives to build new pharmaceucticals manufacturing plants in
Bangladesh.
4)Lift the expenditure limit of Bangladeshi pharmaceutical comapanies from
$2,500 to $100,000 for a foreign office.
5)Hire/contract pharmaceuticals experts from the foreign countries to enhance
this sector.
6)Provide tax fee environment for Non Bangladeshi Residents (NBR)/foreign
pharmaceutical professionals to help Bangladesh pharmaceuticals companies.
7)Build an Independent International Standards Laboratory Testing Center in Bangladesh. Govt can joint-venture with foreign company to establish this facility.
I like to see Bangladesh earns pie of US$10 Billion generic medicine market within 3-5 years. This will create another 10 lakh jobs in Bangladesh within 3-5 years. Advance thanks DP to publish my proposals.
Best wishes,
M. M. Chowdhury, USA
http://www.amreteckpharma.com
http://www.changebangladesh.com
January 12th, 2007 at 5:32 pm
Congratulations to all of the participants for actively participating in discussing developments. Participation is both a necessary and sufficient condition for the exercise of true democracy.
Now for a wish: I wish that the two leaders of our major political parties are arrested and put in solitary confinement in adjoining cells - with a connecting door. They should be charged with the crime of leading Bangladesh down a path of destruction and of actively supporting the systematic looting and plunder of the country by members of their respective entourages. Each day, they should be forced to endure presentations of tales of horror and suffering that they have caused or let happen through their inaction. And they should only be let out when they are truly sorry and repentant for the harm that they have wrought.
January 12th, 2007 at 6:02 pm
Muhit, I second ur suggestion. Can electricity be turned off in their confinement with food be sold at an exorbitant price also? Somebody should read them some books so that they listen also. Becasue, they dont wanna listen to anybody.
January 12th, 2007 at 7:32 pm
Can we Put Ershad Chacha there too?
January 12th, 2007 at 9:35 pm
If you want to fulfill the demands of AL, there was no way other than emergency. Should there be such demands that can be met by emergency only? I am taking only one demand in consideration, updating voters roll. I am giving a challenge to everyone that this new CA and his advisers will again be in trouble with the voters roll. If you give them a year or more yet they will not be able to prepare a flawless voters roll. So there will be an election with a flawed voters roll if it is to be held even within a year or so. In BD it is never possible to get a flawless voters roll by updating.
January 13th, 2007 at 2:01 am
Well, Mr Amjad, AL had been demanding for a long time. If due steps were taken before by the CG, there would have been no need for this emergency. The former CG led by Iajuddin ignored their demands. Only a few of the demnads were partially realized only, although only after massive protests and violence. I can write a 10 page report explaining what went wrong, but I won’t because all of you are aware of these facts. ‘A stitch in time saves nine’– doesn’t it ?
January 13th, 2007 at 3:49 am
Mr. M. M. Chowdhury:
3)Expedite and establish API zone to build more facilities to produce pharmaceuticals raw materials.
>> Work has already begun on this end, with the support of the World Bank. The land for the zone has been identified and construction should begin later this year once World Bank financial support is approved.
7)Build an Independent International Standards Laboratory Testing Center in Bangladesh. Govt can joint-venture with foreign company to establish this facility.
>> The European Commission and Norway are already working towards this end, with additional plans to support Intellectual Property Rights laws and legislation in the near future.
>> This is already being done in several private universities. As I understand it, the approval process for this degree is quite tough, and must be certified by the Pharmaceutical Association as well as the UGC. In addition, it requires a lot of infrastructure as well, which a few universities have already put in place.
Everyone else:
I think it’s a valid assumption to assume that Iajuddin was forced out of power by someone or the other. However, I would like to provide an alternate explanation. What if Iajuddin, like everyone else, had cards up his sleeve, and his meeting with the armed forces was just to prepare for the implementation of his master plan? Perhaps he also grew tired of the bad reputation he had been getting, and had decided to get rid of the BNP puppeteers once and for all, by declaring the state of emergency and asking the army to arrest key BNP personnel? That would have taken all parties by surprise sufficiently.
After all, the basic human instinct is survival. I think Iajuddin feared enough for his own future survival and that of his reputation to decide that he had had enough of the BNP’s stance on the January 22 election. Had he gone through with it, who can say that he wouldn’t have been replaced as president when the BNP government came to power, thus leaving him vulnerable to attacks and assassination by AL supporters? Therefore, I believe he feared enough for his own hide to continue playing the BNP’s game, and chose to step down on his own.
The meeting with the chiefs of the Armed Forces was probably to brief them on his own gameplan, and therefore to get them to do his bidding. I’m sure he suggested more people to arrest and prepared the list himself - it would be interesting to see the list and exactly who is on it. The army may be playing it safe for now, but may step up arrests and raids as the emergency continues.
January 13th, 2007 at 10:27 am
eLeCtRiKbLuEs,
Thanks for pointing out those successes in Bangladesh. I am hearing about this API Zone for hte last 5 years. I am asking to expedite this process/project. About the course, I am actually asking about practical and comprehensive training on pharmaceutical technologies within scinece students in Bangladesh. I did not know that Govt is working on Idependent Testing Laboratory, if Govt started, they need to expedite it for the sake of this sector. I will train few Bangladeshi Pharmaceutical companies including Beximco and Square personnel on July 2-5, 2007 in Dhaka. Great information though.
Thanks,
M. M. Chowdhury, USA
http://www.amreteckpharma.com
http://www.changebangladesh.com
January 13th, 2007 at 12:00 pm
FZ, why did AL agree to go to election then before retreating once again? It has eerie similarity with the earlier garrulous announcement of Hasina that AL will never call “hartal” again and she will retire upon attaining 58 yrs of age. Any rebuttal?
January 14th, 2007 at 2:32 am
Elektrik is the 1st to posit that Iajuddin may still be (partially) in control. Any more facts emerging to support (or weaken) this possibility?
If Iajuddin comes up a survivor after all this, he is jhanoo maal and another category of cheese.
January 14th, 2007 at 3:06 am
In referece to elecktricblue
Was it only me or someone else has noticed this too?
Iajuddin, used to look very frail, shaky, grumpy all along his chief CTG role. All his previous speeches were the examples.
But suddenly, during last speech he looked very refreshed, glowing and sounded and looked very confident.
BTW, still it is most likely that he was forced into it.
In that scenario, he is probably the worst loser. He lost the whole country being a BNP crony and now he lost BNP too. So he has none to take care of him when a new elected government takes over.
January 16th, 2007 at 3:12 pm
[...] re he resigned he declared a State of Emergency. Farhan, for the Drishtipat blog, also has a quick summary with pictures on what has been happening. PP’s own Golmal Sid has [...]
January 18th, 2007 at 3:07 pm
Somebody asked why I wrote “army seems to be in charge” on day 1. I said it seemed common sense reading the news.
Well, now there’s evidence:
http://thedailystar.net/2007/01/19/d701191501110.htm
February 15th, 2007 at 5:19 am
[...] of Emergency in Bangladesh. Was it the last resort to a free, fair and credible election? Naeem Mohaiemen: Come see the game. Quick summary. Rudraneil Sengupta: Army plays key rol [...]
February 21st, 2007 at 10:40 pm
how come army is so popular today to AL supporters. They did not want army on the streets. Four advisers resigned in protest. Reason,, why army was called up the day AL decrared to seize Bangobhaban with 3000000 AL army.
They were not successful with Gen Nasim. Abdur Rahman Biswas failed AL move to use Gen. Nasim to capture power. AL was not successful then but they have been successful this time.
Dr. Yunus entering politics also smells fishy. AL has very tough supportes. Only party that would loose support if yunus comes to power is BNP. There is no way AL will loose anything.
And, look, who are joining Yunus? All those civil society members who were dancing to AL tune all along.
Drama is still to be played. I do not know what will happen when young brass of army starts to smell the fish.
February 21st, 2007 at 10:48 pm
adding to my earlier comment. Don’t you think that AL reaction against yunus has been over played.
It is well known that AL has nothing to loose, since anti-AL vote will get divided further if Dr. yunus enters politics. And AL has 15% vote for them to keep.
Yunus’s grameen bank is powerful in chittagong, manikgonj and adjacent areas. and Dhaka will support him. ALL BNP strong holds.
Bangladesh is divided into two blocks. AL and anti-AL.
Seek your comments.
It is an all out move to annihilate BNP. They failed in 1982-1990 1nd momentarily in 1996 with Gen. Nasim moving in. Can BNP survive this time around?
Seek your comments
February 22nd, 2007 at 2:10 am
[...] hamshir on February 22nd, 2007 Over at Drishtipat Blog, Naeem has a great summary of the present state of affairs in Bangladeshi politics, with some speculation th [...]
February 22nd, 2007 at 3:24 pm
Bangladesh corruption (AL-BNP) had earned such low reputation worldwide that even the Nigerians cited Bangladesh as the WORST example.
Here’s a Nigerian’s comment:
http://allafrica.com/stories/200702210842.html
February 23rd, 2007 at 11:55 pm
Now we are Nigeria’s “at least it’s not that bad” example!
On the other hand, to keep it in perspective, consider this:
Whenever I tell a dear Palestinian friend about the latest drama in CD, she always replies “habibi, at least you HAVE a country!”
:-/
February 24th, 2007 at 9:41 pm
Hmm, I guess “nai mama’r cheye kana mama bhalo.”
But thank goodness our kana mama, good old Bangladesh, has VISION now!!
Need a milad and sadka now that our “kana mama” has vision. Yippee!!
February 24th, 2007 at 9:48 pm
Interesting development from today. All shops to close from 7 to save electricity and prevent loadshedding (except essential foods+medicine).
Shopkeepers grumbling: “byabsha late uthbo”
Drivers enthused “traffic kombo”
But real question is: Agora? Khola or Bondho? Food or luxury?
Is it the end of barcoded tormuj?
February 25th, 2007 at 1:37 pm
Ehsanul,
Yunus will create problem for AL. Yunus’s platform is stated to be a secular party. Secular minded people who are frustrated with AL will then support Yunus’s party. Look who are around Yunus.
That is why BNP-Jamaat should be happy with Yunus. BNP’s only concern is that some progressive BNP men may join Yunus’s party.
Jamaat is always against Yunus’s Grameen bank because of the later’s role in women emancipation. Now ideologicaly BNP has become closer to Jamaat.