Mon 27 Nov 2006
The news is not out yet in the major media and the internet but I just caught the news on TV (Channel i) very early this morning that Bangladesh election date was abruptly announced today. AL and 14-party have been very rigid from the start on accepting any election date unless and until their demands are met. After the M.A. Aziz issue, two main ones that are still outstanding are the reconstitution of the EC and the resolution on the voter list. BNP and the 4-party alliance has been delivering their daily push for the election schedule and now they have it but now we will have to wait and see what the reaction is from the 14-party though I think it will be rejected flat-out. Any thoughts?
Last Day to Submit Nomination: December 10, 2006
Election Day: January 21, 2007
November 27th, 2006 at 8:53 am
Advisors Mahbubul Alam, D K Nath and Sultana Kamal admitted to the reporters that they had no idea that election details were announced by the EC.
Yasmeen Morshed said she most definitely knew that it was coming. To paraphrase her words “we are in the govt, of course we knew….what we do or don’t know need NOT be shared all the time”.
Ms Morshed bewilders me.
November 27th, 2006 at 9:26 am
Acting CEC Mahfuz Rahman said “show me where the mistakes are, what names are fake, we’ll delete them….”
And what is supposed to be the job of EC?
EC secretary Abdur Rashid Sarkar snuck in to Iajuddin’s house last night along with attny gen A J Md Ali. And the next day two new EC’s names were announced and then this poll schedule came out.
Who will go to this poll? 15 million allegedly fake voters?
November 27th, 2006 at 10:06 am
Another 1996 Feb 15 Election plan but this time it will not happen that the difference.
There won’t be any election before March 2007 or April.
This is the best chance for us the voters to press to Care taker government to clean election mess and to prevail a free and fair election environment than we will go to vote. I am not a AWL supporter but going to election under this circumtances for AWL would be a great blunder.But the election engineering game thats been played by BNP in last 5 years in power has
4 layers of instance AWL has crossed only one
KM Hasan and Aziz still three more layers. Will the people of Bangladesh would sustian with AWL during this crucial time to over come the layers thats a million dollar question to the people of Bangladesh?
Drastic change is needed in RAB and they should be monitered during the election because that is another election engineering agent for BNP.
thanks
Kawser Jamal
http://www.changeBangladesh.com
November 27th, 2006 at 11:28 am
Where is the dignity of the advisers? We need spine and guts from these people. These are the last men standing between a fraudulant election and credible one.
From bdnews24
Emerging from the meeting, cabinet spokesman Mahbubul Alam said the advisers knew nothing about the announcement of the election schedule and the appointment of two new election commissioners.
“None of us knew about the announcement of the election schedule,” adviser Alam told journalists.
“I came to know about it from you (journalists),” he said.
On the appointment of election commissioners, he said that two commissioners were scheduled to take oath Monday.
“But we didn’t know who would be appointed.”
November 27th, 2006 at 1:09 pm
Iaj treates 10 Advisors like “dud-bhat”. Earlier Iaj made Akber Ali write a whole speech for his last television address aired 2 days ago at 11:30pm. Akber Ali wrote it around 7:30pm on the same day but when the 10 advisors left, Iaj threw it in the trash. Because, Iaj already recorded his speech drafted by his Mukhles with BTV around 4:30pm. He waited almost all the people to go to bed before airing it at 11:30pm. He doesn’t want and need the 10 advisers. He already has 10 from BNP and Jamaat, working behind a transparent curtain.
Now today Maudood of BNP went to Court to defend Iaj from being tripped by 14-party leaders’ case. It’s totally clear what Iaj’s fair play is.
Hmm, Yasmin Murshed actually didn’t have a clue about this election announcement. I wonder what her students learning from her? How to tell lies professionally??
November 27th, 2006 at 1:55 pm
Sultana Kamal is someone I respect a lot. Why is she going along with this? At least she should resign and save her ijjoth.
Iaj, EC etc are only doing what they were designed for. This was always their game plan. But what about those useless Advisors. And we keep giving them cover of bhodrotha? It’s time to ask EVERY Advisor to resign en masse. What are they waiting for? “Oh, I can influence it from inside?”
November 27th, 2006 at 2:09 pm
http://shobakorg.blogspot.com
Bangladesh’s year-long debacle over coming elections continues. Today the interim government announced a flash date for elections (January 21st 2007) without resolving any of the issues the opposition had raised.
Crooked election commissioners, even more crooked acting president, legal system politicized and in chaos, 15% bogus voters, total disenfranchisement of non-Muslim and non-Bengali minority votes, absolutely not one iota of reassurance of fair elections––every issue remains unresolved.
The center-left 14-party opposition has refused to participate in the polls.
Only the ruling rightist-islamist 4-party coalition wants to hold the elections. Why not, they hold all the cards and all the king’s men.
EU and UK to send a record number of election observers. If you are a EU citizen, please consider registering to become an Election Observer to Bangladesh (see bottom of this e-mail– note UK citizens do it through ERIS, other EU citizens may need to do it @ different website).
EU or no EU, The elections cannot happen on schedule and we may look at months of confrontation between the ruling rightist-islamist coalition (and the interim government, which is riddled with sympathizers to the rightists) and the center-left coalition of 14 parties. A coming meltdown or the men in khaki again? Or will the Islamists stop using all these proxies and finally make their move to grab direct power?
-Naeem Mohaiemen
#####
Some background reading…
What’s Really At Stake: Islamic or Secular State?
http://www.drishtipat.org/blog/2006/11/16/cultural-radicalization/
To The Polls, Unless Your Name Be Das, Tripura, Roy
http://shobakorg.blogspot.com/2006/11/das-tripura.html
Military Coup Again? Generals In Labyrinth
http://shobakorg.blogspot.com/2006/11/general-labyrinth.html
The Magic 15%: What’s The Big Deal With Voter List?
http://www.thedailystar.net/2006/11/20/d611201501150.htm
Dissent & Death: Rough Drive in Kawran Bazar
http://www.drishtipat.org/blog/2006/11/13/rough-drive/
Secret Meetings: Like a Bad Noir Movie
http://www.drishtipat.org/blog/2006/11/25/picture-of-the-day/
Rushed Meetings, Bogus Election Date
http://www.thedailystar.net/2006/11/28/d6112801011p.htm
Party Man Made New Election Commissioner
http://www.thedailystar.net/2006/11/28/d6112801022.htm
What Now? Death of a Thousand Cuts
http://www.thedailystar.net/2006/11/24/d61124020331.htm
Small World After All (w/ apologies to Disney)
http://shobakorg.blogspot.com/2006/11/vote-dakathi.html
Chaos in Court as Lawyers Move to Block Elections
http://www.thedailystar.net/2006/11/28/d6112801149.htm
Ongoing News Updates
http://bdnews24.com/home.php
http://thedailystar.net
#####
EU BANGLADESH ELECTION OBSERVER DATABASE
UK: Register EU Election Observer Team To Bangladesh
http://www.eris.org.uk/missions/eu/eu.php
Other EU: Register @ EU Election Observer Roster
http://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/observer/index_en.htm
Please note that ERIS only recruits UK citizens, for those observers in other EU member states, please contact your respective Foreign Ministries.
November 27th, 2006 at 2:10 pm
In 1991 I voted for BNP. I did not like the arrogance of AL leaders then and I was also a fan of so called “uncompromising” leader.
In 1996 I voted for AL. I did not like Madam’s honeymoon with Jamat and religion traders, I also did not like her greed for power and wasting public money in Feb 96 election.
In 2001 I was in the US, I wouldn’t have gone to the polling center anyway. I did not like AL godfathers and Hasina’s attitude. I more despised Madam’s wedding with religion traders.
In 2007, I would not go for voting either. If all parties go to election it will be 1986-style, all the campaign and festivities will be hijacked on the Election Day and the following night. If they don’t go it will be like Feb 1996-style.
Madam has always had a hard time giving up power. She is “uncompromising” in this front. I said from the very beginning, I don’t have any faith on Iajuddin and he is like a Dr. Abdul Malek (Governor of East Pakistan).
Oh boy! Democracy is messy, it’s messier when the society itself in undemocratic. Still, it gave the best development record so far (in 90’s, source UNDP HDI trend history http://hdr.undp.org/hdr2006/statistics/countries/data_sheets/cty_ds_BGD.html).
November 27th, 2006 at 5:11 pm
Things are looking bleak indeed. There seems to be little leverage the other advisers have on this president. Perhaps, the advisers other than CA are sitting around hoping for the best, thinking that their resignation will deepen the crisis rather than help.
The question is what can be done now. The AL probably stands to lose more by another blockade since sufferings caused to ordinary citizens will come back to haunt them even if things are eventually resolved to AL’s satisfaction–and I suspect BNP-Jamaat know that. Instead of the election being about the failure of past government, it will be in a large part about the AL causing people immense sufferings through its blockade program.
Also, AL has not played its hand correctly. They made it da movement against personalities–first it was KM Hasan, then it is Aziz. Now it is the new election commissioner. Is it clear that even if the current guy goes out, you will have one that will be acceptable to AL. We are going from one crisis to the next.
The point is they could have done a lot better by emphasizing from the start their main demands:
1) Scratching of the new voter list that includes 1.3 million estimated fake voters in accordance to the census.
2) Getting polling officers with no political backgrounds.
Now that we are where we are and news media, except perhaps the Jamat-BNP mouth-pieces, are screaming at the government with apparent futility, we are back to what can be done to avoid another calamity.
The only way out seems to be a massive unprecedented mobilization of public with its own demands on the election commission, president and politicians. Perhaps, the advisers other than the CA can be also be brought on board.
Let’s think of the smallest set of nonpartisan demands that will unite the biggest number of people and think of ways to mobilize millions, without causing the destruction and loss that blockades have.
November 27th, 2006 at 8:02 pm
Reactions to election date:
1. Jatiya Party rejects poll date.
Secretary General ABM Ruhul Amin Hawladar:
The party finds the announcement “unwarranted” when a writ petition on the election timeline is pending with the High Court.
2. Jatiya Oikya Front (JOF) rejects poll schedule.
JOF chairman Prof Badruddoza Chowdhury:
Main task of the election commission was to prepare a flawless voter list which it failed to do with at least one crore 30 lakh fake names in the current voter list which needed to be corrected.
3. LDP leader Barrister Ziaur Rahman Khan:
Announcement of the election schedule was a direct contempt of court.
4. Former Minister Sheikh Fazlul Karim Selim:
“The hurriedly announced schedule is depressing, especially when the list is still being printed. It’s a complete violation of the law.”
5. Awami League General Secretary Abdul Jalil
“I’ve heard the speech of Election Commission Secretary Abdur Rahid Sarkar. He spoke like a thief. Such a crucial announcement cannot come playing hide and seek.”
November 27th, 2006 at 8:07 pm
Tanveer bhai, I agree with you. In negotiations parlance, what the AL is doing is negotiating on positions, and not interests. By locking themselves into a position which essentially involves personalities, they are finding themselves back to square one because they are left to oppose yet another personality. On the other hand, had the interest been spelt out as a truly non-partial EC, and butressed by positions such as constitutions of the EC, appointment of non-partisan commissioners, they would not have been in this predicament.
The irony is, they are actually doing the BNP and allies a favour by making them look accomodating to the AL’s demands. That the only move the AL can make is blockades also doesn’t help. The previous round was perhaps the last straw. One really has to doubt if there will be much public support for the next round. Life is hard as it is - a recurring blockade is too much hardship for the average person at this stage…
Also, at this point, almost anything the AL does is crying over spilt milk. They had failed to anticipate the election engineering scheme and are now bewildered by a scheme that would make Karl Rove proud.
Their only way out is to create a movement that does not at the same time bring hardship to people. I don’t know if they are capable of doing that.
November 27th, 2006 at 10:21 pm
Saleh Tanvir, bengali, I just want to ask you what is that movement “that does not at the same time bring hardship to people”. Does it exist anywhere? ppl are just making wishful thinking without ever having a solution. Right now its a very tricky situation for AL, because BNP-Jamat has the muscle, money and backing o Army + Amla. You can’t fight that easily. I am surprised that regardless of what AL did, election engineering is no longer a AL claim, due to actions of last month ppl can now see it for real. If you are living in US and writing comments just based on newspaper reports, columns you are dead wrong about public sentiment in streets of Dhaka. Go ask any rickshawala or bua, or mudi dokandar you will get the picture, Khaleda Zia almost plundered her political capital in last one month.
November 27th, 2006 at 10:41 pm
Bhai, I am fed up. I dont think thr will be an election with the participation of all the parties.
November 28th, 2006 at 2:45 am
It seems to me that BNP does not want an election participated by AWL. Obviously BNP will win the election which is not participated by AWL. BNP has the confidence that they would be able to tackle opposition AWL then in the same way as they did during 2001-2006. My guess is that with two thirds majority BNP then will also abolish caretaker system.
It has grand plan to stay in power for another 20 or more years and they will do whatever they need for this purpose.
Now AWL should consider all these possibilities and then make plan. It should look for the best possible gain given the constraints.
November 28th, 2006 at 4:38 pm
I think the only way for AL is “andolon”. I know, this is harship for people, but considering what’s at stake for the next 5/10 years or even longer term future of the nation people might accept the hardship.
November 28th, 2006 at 7:58 pm
What are Awami League’s options? Participate in the elections, or andolon-oborodh.
If they participate in a rigged election then they legitimise it - most of us are probably old enough to remember 1986. If they don’t participate, then they risk two things.
1. They risk losing public sympathy. This can happen because andolon-abarodh creates hardship for the ordinary people.
2. If they lose enough public support, then BNP-Jamat will get away with a one-sided election (or maybe Ershad will join the election to become the leader of the opposition), and once back in power, they’ll suppress AL in a way that will make the last 5 years like a picnic.
What are the chances of these happening? What are the chances of AL losing public support?
I am writing from the US. I have no other source of information than blogs like this and newspapers. Most my friends are in similar situation. In these circles, I don’t think there are many who think a BNP-Jamat return is a good idea. But how representative is this circle?
Shomsher in number 12 says that BNP-Jamat has lost the support of the rikshawallah and the bua that make up most of the voters. Does this mean that the rikshawalla and the bua will support AL? If the answer is yes, then clearly AL should continue andolon.
Contrast this with something Sufibaba implied in the past - the average people is more against the abarodh than the corruption etc of BNP-JI. If Sufibaba is right, then AL’s andolon has no hope. And more importantly, if Sufibaba is right, then clearly democracy in Bangladesh has little hope in the short-term.
Now, it is important to take stand. Asif has written before about what is at stake in this election. For the record, I think a BNP-JI return would set Bangladesh back by decades. But I am not in Dhaka, and it doesn’t matter what I think.
Those of you who are in Dhaka, what do you guys think? And what do the rickshawalla and the bua and the dokandar think?
November 28th, 2006 at 11:15 pm
Suppose that AL does not participate in the election. What will happen then? BNP will be winner without any contest. The young turk suppressed AWL during 2001-2006. They think that they would do the same during 2006-2011. Also they will effectively control the press. By the way, they will abolish caretaker government system using two-third majority in the parliament.
Now what AWL can do now? Already there are so many objections against caretaker system. I think the next government will abolish this system. If BNP comes to power in 2007 election, the AWL will have to participate election under BNP in 2012.
My view is that AWL should form a grand alliance that also includes Jatya party and other Islamic parties. And then face the election in 2007. It will take a massive rigging to defeat AWL lead alliance in such election.
November 29th, 2006 at 12:24 am
Dear Mr. Wasim,
Yes you are right, it will take a massive rigging to defeat AL in the next election. And this massive rigging plot is being implemented by the CG. There should not be any doubt after what Iajuddin had done in the last few days.
Your prediction has a fundamental flaw. You think that if AL/ other parties boycott the election, BNP will win the election and form govt. The fact is if an election is held without AL, no way will it be acceptable to the international community. And the new BNP govt will have little support at home. This will be a repeat of Feb 1996 election that will ultimately drive the nation towards another election. So, no question of AL’s participation in BNP led election in 2012.
The problem must have to be solved by the CG. Taking a neutral stand at this critical juncture can only save the nation.
FZ
November 29th, 2006 at 2:29 pm
In reply to Mr. Shomsher’s comments, I want to make a few points:
It is true that seige is the most effective short-term political weapon that AL has at the present time and Mr. Shomsher and others like him seem to believe that infliction of collateral losses on ordinary people (many of them going hungry for instance) is a necessary cost people are willing to bear.
What evidence do we have that most ordinary people are looking at these costs as worthwhile (other than Mr. Shomser’s reference to servants, perhaps in his own household, whose livelihoods are not jeopardized) ? Indeed, if this were the case, there was no necessity to burn down buses and other modes of transport. People on their own would cooperate. Think of the noncooperation movement in 1971.
Indeed, I have heard an interview on BBC of a poor person saying that he has been waiting at the bus station for days to get out of Dhaka, but with no luck. He was lamenting– all this for an election commissioner–we are only poor people, why do we have to suffer for him?
I maintain that most ordinary people do not view this as a cost worth paying. Many ask what is all this for– to see another five years of misrule and lawlessness, just like the previous five. While BNP-Jamaat mistrule reached new heights, are we assured that the change in government will necessarily be for the better–that we will not see fascism AL-style replace BNP-Jamaat type fascism. If past is any guide, every new government has beaten the past government in corruption and misrule. Are we sure that there are not hundreds of Jainal Hazaris ready to take over.
Note the sentiment expressed in the last paragraph is not the way I am looking at it–I see this as a fight for a fair process and that is more important than who comes to power. However, my conversations with many have led me to believe that
there are many nonpartisan people who hold the view point expressed in the last paragraph.
Given this situation, people must find an alternative to enforced seige. In the Ukraine, you had ordinary people show up in huge numbers, in Phillipines, the same happened during the yellow revolution. I don’t recall enforced seiges in either. You must recognize and respect that people have the right to lead their own lives and make a living, despite the injustice inflicted on you. If you do not, you will suffer the consequences politically.
In the present situation, people are desperate and even those not aligned with any party are mad about the situation, the spiralling costs of essentials and all the disruptions and they are blaming it on the politicians and the president.
However, this is also an opportunity for a real people’s movement. Perhaps, with the right leadership, you can get one from every family out in the open wearing a black badge and putting out a set of minimal set of demands placed on the president, election commission and the politicians alike. If this crowd is large enough and persistent enough, they can accomplish something much more than enforced Hartals and blockades.
# Shomsher Says:
November 27th, 2006 at 10:21 pm
Saleh Tanvir, bengali, I just want to ask you what is that movement “that does not at the same time bring hardship to people”. Does it exist anywhere? ppl are just making wishful thinking without ever having a solution. Right now its a very tricky situation for AL, because BNP-Jamat has the muscle, money and backing o Army + Amla. You can’t fight that easily. I am surprised that regardless of what AL did, election engineering is no longer a AL claim, due to actions of last month ppl can now see it for real. If you are living in US and writing comments just based on newspaper reports, columns you are dead wrong about public sentiment in streets of Dhaka. Go ask any rickshawala or bua, or mudi dokandar you will get the picture, Khaleda Zia almost plundered her political capital in last one month.
November 29th, 2006 at 3:56 pm
In Ukraine and Philippines, the uprising happened after an election was rigged. In Bangladesh, the very election is under threat.
December 23rd, 2006 at 8:11 am
The Mega Alliance is likely to sweep the January elections if held. Urban dwellers to village folks want BNP out. From farmers in rural villages to rickshawpullers in Dhaka all are saying that they want Khaleda dynasty and Khuni Jamaat out.They are fed up with spiralling prices of commodities and rampant corruption of Tarek and cronies.They are openly saying that Tarek has taken crores of dollars abroad thus subjecting them to hardship. Eazuddin is also not lagging far behind. His son has reaped crores! The gas station and bank loans are just the tip of the ice berg. That is why BNP is all out to rig the elections in their favor to save their skin.
The Mega Alliance need not worry. They should believe in people’s power. No evil force can win against people’s will. That is the essence of democracy. Though everything including the administration, police, RAB and ?army are in their grip one can take it for granted that their allegiance will swing in AL-LDP-JP’s favor once the election fever gathers steam.I am sure our glorious armed forces will never take the side of the corrupt and damned!
People are silently and patiently watching how shamelessly Khaleda, Tareq ans Nizami are still dictating the terms through a spineless Eazuddin and his peon Mokles.
The advisors are also toothless. Arafat and Sekander’s children study at advisor Yasmin Morshed’s Mohakhali Scholastica school. That is how she was picked by Khaleda as a puppet caretaker advisor like the rest of the goofs.