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Rising extremism and deteriorating law and order could send Bangladesh’s economy into a downward spiral, Bhattarcharya says. Textile and knitwear buyers might stop coming to Bangladesh, and foreign investors could follow.

Finally, if Bangladesh gets a reputation for Islamic extremism, it might stop being able to export manpower to other countries — and kick away a vital prop of the Bangladeshi economy, the money they send home every month.

“If the sense is ‘you have terrorists’, countries will not want to import our manpower,” he said. “It is obviously a major, major risk.”

Yet there continue to be positives. Small-scale microfinance lending is transforming the rural economy and giving millions of women the chance to pull their families out of the poverty trap.

Nearly 50 million people still live below the poverty line, but infant and maternal mortality are falling. The country also boasts as many girls as boys in its primary schools.

Lissner is amazed by the energy and productivity of most Bangladeshis, who could still transform their country if they could only shake off the burdens of corruption.

“That is what is hampering the tiger,” he said. “If the tiger could get rid of that, it could jump like a tiger.”

Bangladesh stands at historical crossroads